What to make of it all

I remember the 2008 election well, especially since I volunteered for the Obama campaign…EARLY (as in winter, 2007). In June 2007, they briefed us and told us what the strategy would be:
1. Hold his own in Iowa and New Hampshire
2. Play Clinton to a tie during Super Tuesday by focusing on gathering delegates in the smaller caucus states; remember that Clinton won the big states.
3. Have field offices set up in the “next 10” states/DC before the second wave of big states.

Clinton thought she was going to knock out Obama during super Tuesday and didn’t have the offices set up in those next 10 states. Obama did and he absolutely trounced her in those…it was there he built up his big delegate lead.

She basically “played him to a tie” after that but by then it was too late; she was hopelessly behind.

So…who is going to have their field offices set up…have the relationships with the local political leaders set up..who is ready to compete in Super Tuesday and beyond? Did Klobuchar and Buttigieg peak early? Will black voters vote as a block or will their votes be as spread out as everyone else’s votes?

We have a LOT of questions moving forward. I think any one of 6 candidates can win: Sanders, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Warren, Biden and yes…Bloomberg MIGHT be a player in Super Tuesday. MIGHT.

We may well have a brokered convention.

Workout notes
weights only. Still slightly weak. Weight: 195
pull ups: 4 sets of 10, 2 of 5 (not much rest)
rotator cuff
incline: 10 x 135 then 1 x 160, 2 x 155, 5 x 150 (little rest between the last sets)
decline: 9 x 170
shoulder press (dumbbells today) 6 x 50, 10 x 45, 10 x 45
rows: 2 sets of 10 x 115 machine, 10 x 200 Hammer (very easy)
goblet squats: 6 x 25, 50, 70, 70 (best in a while)
plank, McKenzies
Walk home to deadlifts:

6 x 145 form, 4 x 211, 4 x 233 (not as easy as I’d hoped)
6 x 167 Romanian
6 x 220 hex bar

That finished me off.

Go Amy!!!

Amy is having a good night in New Hampshire; she is solidly in 3’rd and within outside striking distance of 2’nd. Pete is having a good night as well…and poor Joe..not so good. Sanders appears poised to win..albeit narrowly.

So I have some general things to say, based on tweets I’ve seen. I’ll be posting the tweets as a springboard to my comments; in no way am I attacking the author of said tweets.

Ok, this is not good for Biden. BUT the dynamics of the race are just plain weird this year. For one, the winner in each state (Buttigieg and Sanders) are scoring low to mid 20’s. That is hardly dominant.
Second: the constituencies are so divided this year. Sanders, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are doing well with certain types of white voters. The next states are much more diverse. You could well see a different dynamic there; I honestly think that Biden is not out of it. He could still do well in South Carolina and Nevada.

Now I think that Warren is in trouble as she really doesn’t have a natural constituency anymore. This really hurt her:

Now dammit, I LIKE Elizabeth Warren. She is a genius. She is accomplished and a very hard worker. She is principled. But a good politician..one who can win over a public that doesn’t usually think deeply about things..well, that requires some sales/showbiz ability. And Warren just doesn’t have that; she speaks like, well, a professor. She would be dynamite if college faculty were the ones voting. But that is not the electorate. Politics just isn’t her calling.

Now, of course, you are getting activists saying “if you vote for X, Y, or Z we are going home..”

Or “if you like X”, then I know this about you:

Sorry, but I am just sick to death of pandering to this sub-constituency, be they a racial/cultural group, GLBT group, Labor, wokes, feminists, or whatever. If you want to leave the Democrats, go ahead. Seriously, at times I wish *I* had somewhere else to go.

Now about this election: there was a time when platform was more important to me. And that time may come again. But in this polarized climate, one Democrat will probably govern more or less like any other; that will be forced upon them by the obstructionist Republicans and the fact that rural, conservative areas are given wildly disproportionate representation in the Senate.

So my thinking is: which candidate gives us the best chance of winning…IN THE SWING STATES? The Electoral College is what matters.

And it will be hard for the Democrats as the Democrats are horrible campaigners. We don’t understand the public at all..at least beyond our own small sub-constituency which, OF COURSE, should always come first.

A small example:

Twitter liberals are laughing at Trump’s supposed “self-own” as this scene comes from this:

But…IT DOES NOT MATTER. What Trump supporters will pick up on is this weaselly little liberal being intimidated by this Trump loving “tough” biker and that is a POSITIVE to them.

Another example

Now isn’t that just precious? I know, she is standing up for moderates..as if “we” (if I am really a moderate) somehow care if Twitter liberals consider us Democrats. My first vote was for Carter in 1980 and I started doing party work (in one degree or another) in 1992. I really do not care about validation from so-called “resisters”; I care nothing about “ratios” and the like. Many of them are on my “mute list” anyway.