science – Life of an old goat

Manufacturing outrage

First the workout: I STILL started too late; walk started at about 8 am and it was getting humid. I went with my West Peoria 5.15 mile course and I did take one brief stretch break (1:16 start to finish time; break was 90 second/s)

the discomfort was mild, but I was not in a mood to try to walk through it (while doing posture stuff).

Then resistance training (after a cool down break)

pull ups: 10 single pull ups, 10 single chins, 10 (a few toe touches), 5 pull ups, 5 chin ups, 5 pull ups, 5 chin ups, 2 penalty reps.

Then downstairs: Swiss bar: 10 x 134, then a drop set: 1 x 170, (ugly), 1 x 165 (very ugly), 1 x 160, 3 x 155, 3 x 150, 4 x 145, 5 x 139, 6 x 134

Shrugs: 3 sets of 10 with handles, 3 sets of curls (2 with dumbbells), high incline: 7 x 94, 7 x 99, 7 x 99

Oh well, there are no perfect workouts.

Manufactured Outrage

Last night, I watched this movie made by a conservative activist.

Here is the movie “What is a Woman” from The Daily Wire

pic.twitter.com/jYDzxY7KF1
— Nicholas Powell 🇺🇸🏁 (@NickthePowell) June 2, 2023

The movie takes about 95 minutes, and to be honest I almost gave up early.

The gist: Matt Walsh (the movie maker) appears to be trying to make the point: the word “woman” should stand for the adult human who produces (or can, in principle produce) eggs; that is sex is determined by the gametes.

And so, if someone says: “transwomen are women” they are being illogical since the ability to produce eggs cannot be changed, so they are not biological women. But if you don’t use “woman” with its biological meaning, then saying “X is a woman because they identify as a woman” is logical nonsense; it is the classical circular definition. Ok, if I wanted to, I could talk about how any logical system has to start with primitive terms; terms that cannot be defined (e. g. like “point” in geometry). But I won’t go there.

Then Walsh proceeds to interview different experts (or “experts”) and others and plays “gotcha” with most of them (save 3 friendly experts.

He isn’t stupid: he knows that society produces (evolves?) social roles for biological males and biological females (the professor he interviews seems to be trying to explain that) and a biological male can be suffering from gender dysphoria and will want to “identify as a woman” (fit into the roles normally filled by biological women) and there is a push to say “if you sincerely see yourself that way, you are a woman (in terms of role in society).

Walsh then visits a society that has not been touched by this sort of ideology in order to drive home that what we have is a recent sociological invention, if you will. Then he talks about two early researchers and presents unflattering personal aspects of them. (note: though he attacks their personal ethics, he doesn’t seem to attack the substance of their work). It is “horrible ideology comes from horrible human beings…which…is ..sort of “woke”…never mind that)

There are a couple of other factual issues: in one place, he shows transwomen athletes competing in women’s division (I think this is unfair) but then adds a photo of Caster Semenya who is intersex and NOT transgender.

And then, in an interview, the “furries” hoax is mentioned (though they don’t get to the literbox claim) and he quickly switches to an adult who has some rather eccentric views about…wolves.

The sad thing is that there IS room for a serious discussion about these topics: sports, age of consent for medical procedures, what can go wrong, etc. And, IMHO the best part was the interview with a very unfortunate transman who is suffering, possibly from the effects of transition surgery and hormone injections. That part was well worth watching.

But instead, the producer appears to want to make himself some sort of cultural warrior hero.

Reluctance to get the newest booster

I’ve read about people who got the first vaccine and are now refusing to get the booster and I know some of these personally.

Of course, understanding why would require study by qualified professionals and not just some unqualified blogger throwing some thoughts together.

But here is my guess:

In the US, the vaccination rates of the older age groups are higher than those of the younger age groups. And boosters are recommended for the older age groups.

Now think about what happens as we age: things start to go wrong with our bodies. For example: my blog, at times, is a boring status update of my current health problems.

Within the past 3-4 years, as I went from 59 to 63 years of age, knee problems (long standing) have gotten bad enough to make me stop running. Shoulder problems took away swimming and made me alter lifting (and to do life long physical therapy). Back: yes, I first got treated in 1977, but the problems (spondylolisthesis) got bad enough for me to get an MRI and a referral to a spine surgeon. My psoriasis has flared up from time to time and excessive caffeine intake lead to urinary tract issues (happily resolved, though COVID brought some of it back)

And, if you look at my Facebook timeline, my “problems” are sort of normal for someone my age who tries to remain active.

And now go back to older people getting spaced out vaccinations and boosters. Chances are, these shots will probably coincide with something going wrong with their bodies..it is the age.

In fact, I have a reverse coincidence: right around the time I got my omicron specific booster (September 2022) my back related glute pain started to improve quite a bit…but of course, my ongoing PT, activity modification and management and slow gradual increase in walking were probably the reason.

But oh my, the timing.

The TL;DR summary: old people get shots right around the time when something goes wrong with their bodies, and they ascribe the shot as the cause.

I think this is good old “post hoc ergo propter hoc.”

Social media and “pick a side” discourse

Normally, I see sports as a low-stakes subject to be passionate about. Example: I completely enjoyed the less than perfect Illinois vs. Chattanooga basketball game (54-53 Illini win, won in the last few seconds). But had the Moccs won (and I was expecting them to when they got the ball with 12 seconds to go) my life would be none the poorer.

But now we have the “transgenders in women’s sports” debate and, well, those who often vote the same way I do are making nonsensical arguments. So we see a former “top 500” male take chemicals and then become “no. 1” female this year. And then we see arguments like this one..made by “Doctors”:

1/20 🧵

I have been hearing more frequently the narrative that women's sport apparently exists as a 'protected category' so that women can win (because on this account without it no woman will ever win again)

This is: a) *not* the reason why women's sport exists as a category,
— Dr Sheree Bekker (@shereebekker) March 18, 2022

Good Lord. All one has to do is to look at women’s track and field world records then look a the results of a men’s D1 track meet.

(never mind the other “Dr.” who are perplexed that they’ve made N payments on loan and yet the principal has not decreased..it is as if these self proclaimed geniuses have never heard of “interest.” )

And THIS is one of many reasons professors are disrespected. Yes, every one of us has broad gaps in our knowledge. But that does not mean that we have to go around proudly displaying our ignorance while thinking that WE are the ones who know.

As much as I love to laugh at MAGA ignorance, we have plenty of it in our own house. And it embarrasses me to no end.

Now back to my own mundane workout;

2 hours…yes, 2 hours. It was broken down by 1 hour outside, 16 minutes PT, 44 minutes indoor weights.

Start: McKenzie, spinal balance, one leg bridges, open book indoor, dead bug (8 minutes)

pull ups: 10, 5-5, 10, 10, 10, 5, 5 with the following inbetween:

rotator cuff: 2 sets of 3 different exercises

single leg chair (2 sets each leg)

knee raises (3 sets each leg)

sit to stand single leg (3 sets each leg)

banded walks (2 sets)

And of course push ups: 30 sissy, 30 feet elevated, 30 sissy, 15 deficit (a few extra for depth)

That took 1 hour.

Inside: more single leg bridge (1 set), dead bug (2 sets) side leg lifts (2 sets) spinal balance (1 set) fire hydrants (2 sets) prone knee lifts (2 sets) 16 minutes

Basement: bench press: 10 x 134, 3 sets of 5 x 174 (every 5 minutes); hips down but kind of rough.

one arm rows: 3 sets of 10 each arm (60)

curls: 3 sets of 10 with 50

high incline presses: 2 sets of 10 with 110; have to work on body position; want to avoid pressure on the lumbar.

Other notes: last time, I had 3 sets of 5: 171, 171, 176. Don’t know if today was a regression or not. But I do know that pull ups felt easy and that one legged chair is getting easier. Need to keep with the back stretches.

Some videos

On the verge of getting going…I’ll have to make some progress on my two papers. This will require some weekend/evening work, I think.

Vaccines:

I used the fact that our area is 50 percent vaccinated to do some efficacy calculation: efficacy with respect to hospitalization is about 77 percent..not taking into account risk groups.

So, no, “breakthrough hospitalizations are not “rare.”

Workout notes: kind of sore glutes so no cycling or walking today; (though forgetting my keys did help me make the campus trip and 4 flights a 3’rd time)

Pull ups (60 reps, 3 sets of 10, 1 set of 10 singles, 4 sets of 5), push ups (25, 25, 20 with legs up), rehab, curls (3 sets of 10), rows (3 sets of 10..lighter weight), seated presses (10 x 44, 8 x 66..pathetic)

Why COVID/delta is so difficult to discuss

This tweet sparked quite a bit of discussion:

Lollapalooza just went off with a vaccine/testing requirement but no outdoor masking requirement and had very little COVID spread… so LA does the exact opposite for some reason.https://t.co/lRrk6UPrrk
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) August 17, 2021

The short answer might be something like:

Risk factors have changed..in a bad direction:

2. Delta CAN (and has) spread outdoors:

“

Two recent studies have found that outdoor transmission of COVID could be more likely as the Delta variant continues to spread through the population. The first paper, which is still awaiting peer review, outlines a wedding in Texas in April. Even though the wedding was held outdoors under an open-air tent, an outbreak of the virus led to six fully vaccinated people becoming infected and one subsequently dying, Salon reports.

The authors point out two guests who had tested negative for the variant before traveling from India, but likely infected the other guests, who all later tested positive for the variant. They wrote: “With no histories of vaccine breakthrough, this suggests Delta variant may possess immune evasion in patients that received the Pfizer [vaccine], Moderna mRNA [vaccine], and [the] Covaxin [vaccine].”

The second case in question involves the Pendleton Whisky Music Fest, an outdoor concert held on July 10 in Oregon that has so far had 64 COVID infections connected to it. While it’s unclear how many of those who contracted the virus were vaccinated, state health officials launched an investigation into the event, saying in a press statement: “This outbreak is the first one of its size and scope to be traced to an outdoor entertainment event since the lifting of statewide COVID-19 prevention measures at the end of June.”

“

3. Infections are increasing among the vaccinated.

Now as far as the science goes: true, most spread is via aerosols…indoor. But the delta variant is much more contagious and the outdoor spread is more like droplet spread.

So…these together means that “masking makes sense” in that situation.

But discussion…OMG… it is problematic because:

Things change very rapidly. It was only weeks ago that mainstream articles declared that “breakthrough infections are rare.” (pre delta articles). So, someone who is reasonably well read might have bad information.
Conditional probability is hard for some to grasp. Example: a few weeks ago, it was said that there were 1400 deaths out of 125K breakthrough infections. That is 1.1 percent..similar to the 1.7 percent overall. But that was conditioned on having a breakthrough, and it is a reasonable conjecture that the elderly and more immunocompromised might be more prone to breakthroughs.

Or, when the NYT released an article that vaxxed people could spread it as easily as vaccinated ones, that was, yes, conditioned on being infected to begin with and the best current data I’ve seen would indicate that a unvaccinated person is 9 times more likely to become infected to begin with.
Mitigation is hard for some to understand. “you might need a mask even if vaccinated” means, to them “oh, vaccinations don’t work?” Or: “X got infected though they were masked” means “your mask doesn’t work?” Risk REDUCTION is the goal; risk ELIMINATION is impossible.

And so…discussion is often confused and frustrating, even when talking to others in good faith..even when the others are neither evil nor stupid.

COVID update: how I see it

This was posted on my FB:

My updated COVID post: (thoughtful, respectful responses are welcome, even if you wish to disagree with some of these points)

1. Vaccines: cases. We are seeing some interesting data about how well vaccines prevent infection, hospitalizations and deaths. Some of the stats are misleading. “The reported share of COVID-19 cases among those not fully vaccinated ranged from 94.1% in Arizona to 99.85% Connecticut.”(reference in comment 1) The problem here is that this just reports “total unvaccinated who got infected”/total who got infected” and this includes cases that occurred when vaccines were just getting going.

A more useful stat would be “infection rate of unvaccinated” vs. “infection rate of vaccinated” IN THE SAME location (don’t compare Vermont to Arkansas” and the first figure I show does that in San Diego County. It appears that in a similar situation, an unvaccinated person is about 9 times more likely than a vaccinated person to get infected.This area: 18 cases per 100,000 in a week for unvaccinated vs. 2 per 100,000 vaccinated. In an area with 100000 people, and say, 60 percent vaccinated, this would be a case rate of (.6)(2) + .4(18) = 8.4 per 100000, with 23.8 percent of cases coming from vaccinated people.

2. However, vaccines are even much better at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. Example: of the 125000 breakthrough infections recently recorded, there were 1400 deaths. That is 1.12 percent. But given that one has a much lower chance of even being infected to begin with, that is outstanding protection against death. The US ratio is 1.74 percent for all cases (vaxxed and unvaxxed)

3. Masks and spread (see reference in second comment)It turns out that the spread is primarily aerosol. It was first thought to be droplets because the “droplet” spread model fit well for reasonably ventilated spaces. But for poorly ventilated spaces, it appears to be aerosol, which means that one can get infected even if one is well away from the infected individual.But the big deal is that, formerly, it was though that aerosol droplets were 5 microns in size or less; it turns out that it is about 100 microns or less.So, as before, masks work to keep the infected from spreading it AND a good mask does provide extra protection for the non-infected as well, even in this aerosol type situation.

4. Delta is much more infectious; a brief encounter can induce an infection (not as true with the previous variants) So it isn’t surprising to see cases go up so rapidly.5. A vaccinated person who gets infected carries about the same load as an unvaccinated person. Vaccines reduce the spread as a vaccinated person is less likely to get infected. My own practices:1. I mask outdoors (2 layer fabric or better) if I will be around people (say at a game concourse, or if some are sitting somewhat close to me..often not the case 2. I use a special 3 layer mask indoors for the gym (my two gyms have good ventilation, high ceilings, and are often not crowded3. I use KN 95 for other indoor things where I am around people I don’t know.4. I avoid excessively crowded things (Chiefs games are not a problem)

5. I don’t mask for small gatherings of known, trusted, vaccinated people who are asymptomatic. I do isolate from infected people.

Hope: we ARE starting too see more people getting vaccinated.

Division, mistrust and difficult to deal with data

Sadly, COVID measures have become part of politics and that is deeply unfortunate.

Yes, smart, informed people can disagree on cost-benefit analysis; after all, I take just that sort of analysis when I decide on whether to go to a yoga class, ball game, or even when I decided to go to “in person” teaching last year (following the vaccination of my higher risk wife).

But some things really are black and white.

The trouble is, “black and white” doesn’t mean “easy to understand.” For example, take the issue of how effective masks are at “preventing infecting the user” of said masks. There was debate over “droplet spread” vs. “aerosol spread”, with the latter having much smaller droplets. But, as we see:

“According to them, particles bigger than 100 microns sank within seconds. Smaller particles stayed in the air. Randall paused at the curve they’d drawn. To her, it seemed to foreshadow the idea of a droplet-aerosol dichotomy, but one that should have pivoted around 100 microns, not 5. “

What this means: yes, aerosol transmission of COVID is real..it is airborne and can easily defeat the 6 feet distance in poorly ventilated spaces. But the droplets are still big enough for a mask to be useful in mitigation effects.

Then there is the issue of vaccines, and what does it mean if there are a large number of breakthrough infections?

This article looks at data from states that measures breakthrough infections:

“Almost all (more than 9 in 10) COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths have occurred among people who are unvaccinated or not yet fully vaccinated, in those states reporting breakthrough data (see Figure 2).“

BUT…how far back does this data go? Remember that vaccines started in mass in January, often with priority to those in certain groups. So of course, the “vaccinated vs unvaccinated” numbers would be lopsided during this time. And delta has just arrived here. That is, what would “cases in the last 1-2 weeks of July” look like? Remember this:

“Nearly three out of four people (346 of 469) who tested positive for COVID-19 in a Massachusetts outbreak were fully vaccinated, according to data released by the CDC Friday.“

This is post-delta and includes a population with high vaccination rates.

I hasten to point out this was a mass gathering event, and that vaccines almost certainly kept the total number of who would become infected much lower (I’ve heard 5 times lower) than they otherwise might have been. And few of these ended up in the hospital..that too is important.

Evidence: in San Diego County, the unvaccinated COVID rate is 18 per 100,000 whereas it is 2 per 100,000 for the vaccinated.

This. This. A thousand times, this. pic.twitter.com/TB24b1JIbl
— Aaron E. Carroll (@aaronecarroll) August 1, 2021

I am “Mr. Get the Damned Shot”..make no mistake about it. But honestly and accurately interpreting the data is not that easy.