In 2016, the election was pretty evenly divided among income groups.
The 2020: more of a reversion to the 2012 pattern; Trump won the 100K and up vote.
This tells me that business deregulation, judges and the performance of retirement accounts is what kept Trump in it.
Ok, I was relieved to see the previous president FINALLY out of office.
I can say that I did not have the white hot hatred of him that many of my friends had; I kind of saw him as a cross between Arthur (from the Dudley Moore flim) (rich and irresponsible) and the Cartman character from Southpark: Amusing when not in power, but unpleasant to be around, incompetent and uninterested in learning to be competent.
You might call him “unserious.” Much of what a good president has to do is tedious, difficult, and will inevitably make at least 30-40 percent of the country upset (in most cases).
Nevertheless, 74 million voted for Trump and think he did well.
Some STILL think Democrats are about bribing people with “free stuff”. This was posted by one of B’s former students (now an attorney):
“it seems like the goal now is income redistribution and to tax, tax and tax and bribe folks to vote for Dems by providing more “free stuff”….I would much prefer rewarding folks for working and providing value and thereby incentivizing hard work and innovation ….as Reagan once stated, you can’t tax your way to prosperity”
You have nonsense like this too:
And let’s remember: many who stormed the Capitol were reasonably well off (state lawmakers, private jet users, CEO’s, Service Academy grads, police officers, etc.)
And so, yes, while some of the 74 million liked the tax cuts, business deregulation, the way that their retirement accounts looked, right wing judges, etc, …these are what I call the “Faustian bargain” types..
But, there is this aspect too:
And there is the left wing. These are the ones who were upset that Biden was nominated…the ones who just KNEW that Sanders or Warren would win.
And I see them going around, thinking that Biden won thanks to the sanctimonious left wing “activists.” Frankly, the “defund the police” type stuff hurt us in Congress and darned near tipped the election to Trump; he needed only about 43K votes switched in Wisconsin, Arizona and Georgia to flip the EC.
Frankly, a lot of these types may have helped Trump win to begin with.
Remember, Trump improved his performance among minorities, ..NOT just Cubans in Florida.
Liberals keep falling for this (ok, this was about Brexit but the principle applies)
I really wish liberals would look at those large Trump rallies, or even those large Trump boat parades and ask themselves: “did I find this convincing?” Then maybe they might get the answer to “what did our demonstrations do?” (besides possibly spread COVID19….and liberal hypocrisy on that is another matter both at the individual and mass levels)
Yes, my arm still aches just a little (shot arm) and I was slightly off in today’s workout. Pull ups were a chore!
pull ups: singles, sets of 5, a few done with palms facing me; decent quality though. Enough to get to 50 reps..in between: rotator cuff, squats (no weight), hip hikes. These were hard.
bench press: not my best:
10 x 134, 2 x 184, 2 x 184, 5 x 164, 5 x 164, 5 x 164 (light touch..NO BOUNCE)
trap bar dead lifts: 3 sets of 10 x 134, focus on technique.
tried empty bar squat; had trouble with depth.
shoulder presses: 3 sets of 10 x 48 dumbbells, 1 set of 3 x 52 kg (114) barbell
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 134
push ups: 2 sets of 40 (fought with phone in between sets)
Total time, even with repairs: 1:40 ..this could easily be done in 1:30.
That is important to know for when classes start.
Politics
It is clear that the Republican party isn’t what it once was. Sure, it is still very capable of winning elections at all levels; I don’t doubt that for a second. Still, David Frum’s article is worth reading:
“
Few if any leading Republicans allowed Trump’s hope to overturn the election to interfere with their own, much more cynical plans to debate and delay. Senators Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz and their allies had planned a self-aggrandizing media stunt, a springboard for future fundraising, an entry into the ever-escalating contest to prove oneself the least compromising person in politics. Neither of them felt even the slightest concern for Trump’s presidency. They were campaigning for their own.
At least since the election of Barack Obama in 2008, the conservative world has become a place of ever more extreme language, ever more widely distanced from real-world events. Conservative talkers would say things like Obama “is literally at war with the American people,” and then be greatly shocked and offended that anyone would connect their words to the growth of extremist violence. The words did not mean anything to the cynics who spoke them, and so they found it difficult to imagine that the words might mean anything to those who heard them.
In the same spirit, Republican elected officials repeated Trump’s outlandish claims about the 2020 election while privately accepting the election outcome as valid and accurate. The lesson that Republican political professionals drew from 2020 was not that Biden’s 81 million votes were fake. The lesson they drew was that they must use their power over elections at the state and local level to prevent that many people from voting in the future.
They mouthed Trump’s complaints about voter fraud in 2020 while they devised their own, rational plans for voter suppression in 2022 and 2024. They counted on the rest of the political world being responsible enough to apply the brakes before Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election got too far out of hand. In the meantime, they had TV spots to book and funds to raise.
A lot of modern conservatism is a species of affinity fraud. If rank-and-file conservatives are dumb enough to be separated from their money by fantastic lies, well, there are conservative elites who feel they would be remiss not to do the separating. As for Trump himself, some figured, what harm could he possibly do at this point? The American system has been peaceably transitioning presidential power for a very long time; who could seriously imagine that system blowing up in 2021? They knew the road was closed, so they went along for the ride—thinking that the driver must stop when he reached the barrier. Except this time, Trump was not just whining as usual. He crashed right through the barrier. The ride led here: to the dumb-as-rocks fiasco that abruptly severed the long tradition of the peaceful transition of power in the United States.
David Frum, in The Atlantic
There is much more there, and it is all worth reading. Current day US conservatism is really about victimhood and grievance; little about personal responsibility…the very things they always accuse liberals of espousing!
It is grievance after grievance…and I am not sure about what..exactly.
From the Washington Post:
Those who made their way to the grounds of the U.S. Capitol on Wednesday hail from at least 36 states, along with the District of Columbia and Canada, according to a Washington Post list of over 100 people identified as being on the scene of the Capitol. Their professions touch nearly every facet of American society: lawyers, local lawmakers, real estate agents, law enforcement officers, military veterans, construction workers, hair stylists and nurses. Among the crowd were devout Christians who highlighted Bible verses, adherents of the QAnon conspiracy theory and members of documented hate groups, including white nationalist organizations and militant right-wing organizations, such as the Proud Boys.
The list is just a limited cross section of the thousands of people who descended upon the area, yet some striking commonalities are hard to ignore. Almost all on the list whose race could be readily identified are White. Most are men, yet about one in six were women — also almost all White.
Many left extensive social media documentation of their passions, ideologies and, in some cases, disillusionment and vendettas. [….]
Several who traveled to Washington to support the “Stop the Steal” rally told The Post they were driven by two primary grievances: their opposition to the election results and the restrictions in place to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
Now before you bring up 2000, 2004 and 2016, remember that, in each case, the losing candidate conceded. There were no attacks on the Capitol. And they accepted the outcome, even if troubled by some of the voting problems:
Defeated Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John F. Kerry of Massachusetts said this week he did not support the effort to challenge the Ohio results. On Thursday, Kerry was traveling in the Middle East.
But Boxer and other Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), insisted they were questioning the process, not the outcome.
And ultimately, Pelosi and most other Democratic lawmakers joined Republicans to vote to confirm the Ohio results.
As a country, we sure appear to have trouble accepting outcomes we do not like. And I mean “we”..not just Republicans, though at this time, at the leadership level, it appears that the problem is mostly Republican.
As you probably know, there are two special elections for US Senate seats in Georgia. Normally, you’d expect these to be shoo-ins for the Republicans. But Biden did narrowly carry the state and, maybe, just maybe, all the cries of “rigged elections” by the Republicans might just backfire:
The Republicans now have to explain to these people that their lies were just an attempt to “work the referees” and not “the election REALLY is hopelessly rigged against you.” Words have consequences.
The Republicans should heed the fable about “Crying Wolf.”
Speaking of consequences: top Republicans downplaying COVID might well have some consequences as well:
Health care workers are tired, some are sick, a few have died, and most appear to be burnt out. Bad..very bad. There are other issues too, such as K-12 education where teachers are strained to the breaking point. Even worse is the pervasive attitude that teachers are somehow expendable.
Democrats There is continuing anguish concerning how many people STILL voted for Trump and how well the Republicans did downticket. The reality appears to be that while Trump was very, very unpopular as an individual, the Democrats do not offer and attractive alternative to Republicanism.
My guess is that Democrats are horrible at messaging. For one: Defund the Police is a horrible slogan. No one wants less police (or only a statistically small number of people).
The actual IDEA, which is to let police keep the peace and quit burdening them with too many of society’s problems, isn’t a bad one.
But, as they say in politics, “if you are explaining, you are losing” or “if you have to explain, you’ve already lost.”
The protests certainly hurt, as did the idea: “your large gatherings are superspreader events but ours are not..”
Yes, you might say the protests were done by masked people who took precautions AFTER the fact but, again, if you are explaining…
And besides, protests…there is a saturation level at which point they turn people against the cause, no matter how sanctimonious the protesters are.
And yes, they WERE a stupid idea…still are..large gatherings in this environment. COVID doesn’t care about your cause, and protesters can still spread it.
Yes, I’ve read about the “no unusual spikes in the protest cities” but that doesn’t mean they weren’t spreading events; there was just not evidence that there were unusual increases in those locations.
Anyway, the hypocrisy was very noticeable.
And there is the whole attitude toward achievement: Democrats seem hostile to it and they seem to not understand why something like “raise the minimum wage” isn’t inspirational.
Yes, it is popular but one major goal is to not be stuck in a low wage job to begin with! No one wants to remain poor, and some Democratic attitudes seem to be aimed at “ok, stats show that most people live in the economic class they are born in so we are trying to make your life suck a little bit less.“
The thing that really gets me is that Democrats try to offer policies (paid sick leave! minimum wage!) that would help the working class,” a friend just wrote me. A few days’ paid leave ain’t gonna support a family. Neither is minimum wage. WWC men aren’t interested in working at McDonald’s for $15 per hour instead of $9.50. What they want is what my father-in-law had: steady, stable, full-time jobs that deliver a solid middle-class life to the 75% of Americans who don’t have a college degree. Trump promises that. I doubt he’ll deliver, but at least he understands what they need.
People WANT to be rich and, well, the rich…are …admired:
One little-known element of that gap is that the white working class (WWC) resents professionals but admires the rich. Class migrants (white-collar professionals born to blue-collar families) report that “professional people were generally suspect” and that managers are college kids “who don’t know shit about how to do anything but are full of ideas about how I have to do my job,” said Alfred Lubrano in Limbo. Barbara Ehrenreich recalled in 1990 that her blue-collar dad “could not say the word doctor without the virtual prefix quack. Lawyers were shysters…and professors were without exception phonies.” Annette Lareau found tremendous resentment against teachers, who were perceived as condescending and unhelpful.
Michèle Lamont, in The Dignity of Working Men, also found resentment of professionals — but not of the rich. “[I] can’t knock anyone for succeeding,” a laborer told her. “There’s a lot of people out there who are wealthy and I’m sure they worked darned hard for every cent they have,” chimed in a receiving clerk. Why the difference? For one thing, most blue-collar workers have little direct contact with the rich outside of Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous. But professionals order them around every day. The dream is not to become upper-middle-class, with its different food, family, and friendship patterns; the dream is to live in your own class milieu, where you feel comfortable — just with more money. “The main thing is to be independent and give your own orders and not have to take them from anybody else,” a machine operator told Lamont. Owning one’s own business — that’s the goal. That’s another part of Trump’s appeal.
And yes, the poor are resented. Scroll to the end of this artcie.
I have other thoughts (e. g. the attack on males really isn’t a political winner; most women don’t hate men).
You might protest “well, the Democrats nominated Biden, not one of the liberal workes” and that is true, but the party as a whole has been tarred by the liberal woke brush.
That albatross will be difficult to be rid of.
Commentary: much ado about nothing
This mundane squib type kick occurred in 41-0 blowout. And this is supposed to be “historic” because the kicker is a female?
Sorry, but no one doubted that a D-1 soccer player of either sex would be capable of such a routine play. “Historic” would be a 40 yard FG or a booming kick into the endzone. Not this: this is like sending in a female to play quaterback to take a knee at the end of the game.
And before I get crap from the “ha, you are an out of shape old man who…”
yes, I follow female lifters on Instagram including some on the US National Olympic lifting team.
This lifter has gotten almost 300 lb over her head in the clean and jerk; a weight that I struggle to handle in the “high handle” trap bar dead lift.
This is why I think that something as mundane squib kick should not receive such effusive praise.
I am seeing quite a bit of denial on several fronts; one of course is the inability of many Trump supporters to come to grips with the fact that Biden won the Electoral College.
Yes, I saw some of that in 2016 as well, though not to the same degree, and NOT coming from political leaders. So, this isn’t a symmetric situation but I did see some of it.
And I am seeing some denial with respect to COVID and hearing some ridiculous things:
And, no, this isn’t just in the US.
Interestingly enough, this reminded me a bit of what I read in Paul Fussell’s book Wartime: Understanding and Behavior in the Second World War (Review of this book here)
In the book there was a chapter about “rumors in war.” Of course, false rumors are always there, but it was a type of rumor that I especially remembered.
There was one rumor circulating among some US troops that, after they had seen some combat, they had done “their share” and would be soon heading back to the United States to train new troops. When they found out that the rumor was false..they were extremely upset.
In those days, you stayed until you either were killed, wounded, went insane or the war was won (the “tour of a set duration” for ground troops came out in later wars; it is true that aviators had a set number of missions..though survival of a full tour was no sure deal).
Another one: after a rough amphibious assault against fierce German resistance, there were rumors that somehow Germans had advance intelligence of the landing; someone had tipped them off. The idea was “well, this is our enemy; they are tough, disciplined and they will kill a hell of a lot of us, even if we win” was just too brutal of a reality to face. There HAD to be something else.
And so, I think we see some of that here. I think that, while there is some genuine ignorance, there is also probably a lot of people who don’t want to face the reality of COVID 19..that, left unchecked, it will kill a lot of us, and the infection you get will probably not kill you (though it can severely mess you up more than you want to admit) but it will spread to many others..eventually killing someone.
To a lesser extent I think this is reality in politics; voters can’t come to grips that about half (perhaps more) of the country finds the “evil” candidate you opposed to be perfectly acceptable. That can’t be the case, so they must have cheated somehow.
With that, there is the idea that your social bubble is NOT the whole country; there are a hell of a lot of people out there who think very differently than you do.
Yes, Biden won the election; he currently has a 51-47.3 lead in the popular vote and a 79.15 to 73.4 million lead (massive turnout!)
But the Democrats did rather poorly in Congress; we still don’t know the carnage but we lost House seats and will be extremely fortunate to eek out a tie in the Senate (I don’t expect us to; and yes, I chipped in).
But, how will we win purple Congressional Districts and purple states?
There are some issues.
Bill Maher has some words of wisdom..well worth listening to:
And what plays well in academic and in well educated circles…just does not convince the voters:
“Advancing universalistic programs that disproportionately benefit Black and Latino people is traditionally how liberal policymakers have tried to promote racial equity (Harvard sociologist William Julius Wilson labeled it “The Hidden Agenda” in his 1987 book The Truly Disadvantaged), while conservatives do the opposite. When Rush Limbaugh called the Affordable Care Act “a civil rights bill” and “reparations” in 2010, he didn’t mean that as praise.
In a pre-election op-ed published in The New York Times, UC Berkeley professors Ellora Derenoncourt and Claire Montialoux argued for a renewed focus on the minimum wage, noting that this was a key demand of the 1963 March on Washington and that their research says fully 20 percent of the closure in the Black-white wage gap during the Civil Rights Era came from the 1966 minimum wage increase.
But Democratic elected officials did not emphasize the issue much during the 2020 race.”
Yglesias goes on to say:
My suspicion is that this is a weird tic of campus politics that has followed graduates into the professional arena where they unconsciously started deploying it in less appropriate contexts. If you’re in a dorm at a fancy college and you can convince an administrator that something is racist, the administrator will probably put a stop to it. At the same time, “this is bad for poor people” just isn’t going to get you far as a campus argument. After all, these schools more or less openly auction off a number of admissions slots to wealthy donors (while, of course, practicing affirmative action to keep things diverse) so they can hardly take a hard line on class politics.
But electoral politics in a democracy isn’t like that. And to the extent that the US political system isn’t democratic, it’s mostly tilted in favor of over-representing white people with no college degree. So if you actually want to close racial gaps by raising the minimum wage, expanding union membership, expanding Medicaid, and reducing student debt, the last thing you want to do is to sell people on the idea that this is really all about race.
So in this sense, the Bernie types are right: sell the plans in race neutral form (“this helps poor people”) and leave race out of it.
But this might anger the wokes.
We have such a tricky road to tread.
And yes, the largely white, ‘jackrabbit” and Ya’ll states have the electoral advantage and a big advantage in the Senate, and there is not much we can do about it, save breaking up the country (which I favor, but it won’t happen in my lifetime).
Personal opinion Note that Democrats have LOST ground with minorities; this is NOT limited to Cubans in Florida:
What is going on? Of course, politics is local too, but on a global scale, I’d say that Latinos broadly reject “wokeness”:
No one wants “educated” wokes coming in to “educate us” on what is appropriate for ourselves.
And, I honestly think that Democrats, at least the very liberal ones, appear to have a hostility to accomplishment and success ..they took a sensible statement by Obama “you didn’t build that..” (meaning the PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE by which people and goods get to businesses) to mean “you didn’t earn that..”; “success” is equated with “privilege.”
Who in the hell wants to aspire to being a loser or a victim?
The attitude just appears to be wrong.
Well, I walked. Legs: still sort of dead; this appears to happen when I’ve had a good deadlift session on Saturday.
Current events:
About this: these late ballots WERE set aside and do not count toward Biden’s lead nor would they change the outcome.
I wonder if much of this is to bilk as much from the rubes as they can.
This is what they have planned:
Not “march to save the Republic” or “march for justice” ..march for TRUMP. Good lord..it is a cult.
Yeah, the news organizations called Pennsylvania for Biden They have yet to call North Carolina and Georgia, but it sits at 290-214 and it is my guess is that the Trump lead in NC will stand as will the narrower Biden lead in GA so it should end 306-232.
The state I really missed was Florida …I was thinking 330-350 EV and a wider (say 8-9 point) popular vote lead.
Even watching my Illini get creamed 41-14 by the Gophers (mostly running) didn’t sour my mood.
Workout:
Deadlifts:
Low handle, deficit: 10 x 134, 10 x 184, 5 x 224 (last set a bit harder than I’d like)
high handle: 5 x 274 (killed me)
low handle: 5 x 249 (finished me off)
You can see my progression, such as it is, here. August, 2019, getting ONE rep with up handles with 225 was hard for me. I’ve certainly improved.
Yes, i know, the election is not called yet, but Biden has Nevada wrapped up, mostly likely to win Arizona and is about to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania, and possibly Georgia.
Still it appears that Trump has close to 70 million votes, and will likely, if he hasn’t already, surpass the number of votes Barack Obama got in 2008..though, of course, our country has grown in population since then.
So, yes, a whole lot of people found Trump either a suitable choice, or the best available choice.
This for a president who has oversaw one of the worst COVID 19 response in the developed world. (evidently Belgium and Spain were worse, and the UK was just as bad)
He is someone who lies and routinely insults private citizens, including US troops.
He is in charge and the country is in disarray.
And one of his signature events was a COVID spreading event.
And yet, he kept the election close; much closer than Jimmy Carter or George H. W. Bush did in their losing reelection efforts. Ok..they ran against “generational caliber” politicians and that is part of it…
So, how could such a vile and reprehensible man do as well as he did?
Now, I won’t deny that many of his supporters really are “deplorable”; that is clear. But 70 million?
Let’s do a thought experiment.
Suppose you had a type of cancer that was almost always fatal if left untreated. An operation could help and the available surgeons had success rates of:
60, 58, 62, 58, and 90 percent.
Which one do you choose?
Now suppose that 90 percent surgeon was crude; he made racist and misogynistic posts and was MAGA all the way.
Does that change your choice?
And that is how many of them see it.
Many of these get their news from Fox and other right wing outlets, like, say, NewsMax. They see cherry picked stories about the economy (focusing only on the “good quarters”), the stock market (yes, lots of voters have stock based retirement accounts), foreign affairs (every good development they give Trump credit for), etc.
They get a steady diet of stories like this:
:”With huge help from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Trump has put two justices on the Supreme Court, 53 judges on the federal courts of appeals, 144 and counting on the District courts, and more than 20 on the specialty courts. The Constitution has been buttressed.
Trump’s tax cuts, along with the massive deregulation he orchestrated, led to 3.5 percent unemployment until the regime in Beijing acted with criminal recklessness toward a virus that has devastated the world. Economic recovery depends on those rule rollbacks, and not just grotesque overreaches such as the Clean Power Plan and “Waters of the United States” rule, but on hundreds of other intrusions into the private businesses and onto the private property of Americans.
Trump took a military operating in President Barack Obama’s last years at about $600 billion and moved that budget by his third year to $738 billion, with more in the budget coming soon. The Navy necessary to meet China on the high seas, all 355 ships of it, is being planned and built.
Trump tore up the so-called Iran nuclear deal, which was a tower of absurd hopes built on a policy of appeasement and a foundation of hostility to Israel.
Trump moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and blessed Israel’s necessary annexation of the Golan Heights. His peace plan is the closest to reality of any since Oslo.”
“
And so, this is what they see. And in contrast to that, they see the Democrats who THEY see as “socialist”, or anti-free enterprise. They see Democrats who want to defund the police!
Democrats enable crime! Democrats enable underachievement (at times, we do..sadly), devalue hard work and …are against God! (their God, so our critics say).
And Democrats are pushy about trying to force their social norms on everyone else; here is one example:
And, of course, Democrats believe that one can change their “gender” by saying what they are and expect you to memorize dozens of pronouns because THEY say so.
So, to them, WE are the horrible (or possibly merely naive and delusional) human beings that want to destroy what is left of the United States, and if it takes voting for a vulgar, crude man…hey no one remembers Rambo for this manners.
Anyway, that is how I see it.
I feel a bit bloated; though my walk was not that bad and pull ups are ok?
I stopped before the glute got painful.
Election: not much has changed from this morning, though Biden’s lead in Nevada grows and Trump’s lead in Georgia is almost totally gone, and Biden is closing fast in Pennsylvania;
From this morning:
The situation, as I see it:
Nevada: 6 EV. Biden’s lead is very tight but the ballot to be counted is “projected” to be very blue. But projected to be is enough to make a call. I feel confident in this one.
Arizona: 11 EV Fox, Wall Street Journal and AP have called this for Biden and are standing by their call. Yes, there is more vote to be counted and there is a small probability that it might be Trumpy enough to go red..but unlikely as the vote is from several parts of the state (as opposed to being mostly from very red parts). I feel good about this one too, as Fox and WSJ aren’t exactly bastions of liberalism.
1. I think that the call was premature, though Biden is “likely” to win the state; calls should be 99.9 percent sure.
2. Trump protesters are outside stations saying “count the vote” while…well, they are trying to count the vote??
North Carolina: 15 EV Trump leads and though there is enough vote left to be counted that could allow Biden to catch up, it is highly doubtful. I see this one as Trump.
Georgia 16 EV : know more today; it is POSSIBLE that there is enough urban vote to be counted that will give Biden this state. Trump’s lead is now quite small and it is eroding quickly. But will enough of it erode? Call it a “toss up.”
Pennsylvania 20 EV: Trump’s lead (election day voting) is eroding very quickly as the early vote is being counted; I’ll be very surprised if Biden doesn’t win by 1-2 points. Feel great about this.
By Friday, I’d expect tht Biden will pick up 37 EV to put him over the top, and possibly 53 to put him over 300
BTW, Trump is filing frivolous lawsuits and his supporters are making stuff up (e. g. more votes than registered voters in Wisconsin…patently false though Wisconsin, like Illinois, allows for same day registration)
I think that Nevada can be safely called to put Joe and 260. Arizona will likely hold as Trump didn’t gain as much ground as he needed in the Trumpy areas:
Georgia: will probably be a recount state but that won’t help Trump. So, based on the math, I see this:
But, sure, Georgia is a toss up and it might be 289 EV for Biden.
Projections:
The above is from here: I’ve used 538, Electoral Vote (where this was from and they had Biden at 350) and I used e-proj (election projection) as my conservative “reality check” and, well, they did reasonably well.
Note: he was pretty wrong on his comments on Minnesota but while his verbiage is full of…well…nothing good, his statistical analysis was pretty impressive.
Update: Predictit has the following map as of right now, which I agree with:
I think Arizona is better than 74 but, well…we shall see. Note Georgia!
Life of an old goat 