And I grow even more discouraged …

Yes, it is another damned COVID19 post. This pandemic is just tough to wrap your head around.

First of all, I had a nice 8.2 mile walk. I saw uplifting things (people out walking, practicing social distance out door activities). I saw some discouraging things too.

For one: I walked along Rohmann avenue until it turns into Swords. There was this HUGE half-barrier saying “road closed ahead”. Now someone coming from the closed part was just barreling down the street going way too fast as an older gentleman turned onto it..evidently the barrier and the excessive speed prevented the older man from seeing the speeding vehicle ..they didn’t collide but the speeder blew his horn and then PASSED the older guy (on a residential, 2 lane road. What a jerk!

And..a bit later, here comes another SUV at high speed around the curve just to see…YES THE ROAD WAS REALLY CLOSED. (yes, there were places to run onto the residential side streets but this vehicle wasn’t interested in that..they wanted to go straight through.

All of this I DO WHAT I WANT attitude is discouraging

Now…to the COVID-19..

1. Understanding how it affects the public requires some nuance. Yes, if there is a large gathering, large groups of people will NOT drop dead soon after. Instead, IF said large gathering had some infected people there, those infected people will spread it to many more and those will spread it to many more, and again and again…and when the net widens, eventually several vulnerable people will get caught up in it and end up very sick or dead. But we are talking about a somewhat delayed effect.

Think of a super slow moving fire. You might not have a fire right now, but if you have a bunch of old newspapers, magazines and oily starts and then…that is where the trouble starts. And the fire isn’t just there but spreads elsewhere. And for COVID19, a large gathering is a bit like concentrated tinder.

2. Yes, the individual risk to younger people IS low. But risk is multiplied by exposure; not only intensity (say, a coughing, unmasked person in an enclosed space) but in duration(hours at a time vs. a few minutes?) So the young CAN suffer too. We are seeing it elsewhere. Don’t think it can’t happen here.

3. The data is messy, but there appears to be some solutions. Japan has focused on limiting the “3 c’s: closed spaces, crowded spaces, close contact”. Yes, there could be other factors (e. g. a different strain of virus).

4. But too many have this “freedom means I can do whatever I want and to hell with everyone else” concept.

And, oh, do they just show us:

5. And people continue to pile up combustible tinder…all it takes is a well placed match (e. g. an infected person or two) to light it up.

Again, most of these morons will be fine..a few will really get it, and most will allow the virus to spread through them.
Think of it this way; say 1 percent of a crowd of 10,000 has it. The R_0 for a crowded situation can be as high as 5-6. So, those 100 people spread it to 500 at at a 1 percent mortality rate, that is 5 deaths and perhaps 5 more seriously ill from that crowd. But THAT 100 newly infected go out and spread it, say each to 2 more (probably more than that..)

Of course, the extra spread will take some time to show up, as will the extra hospitalizations and deaths; it isn’t as if the people in those videos/photos are just going to keel over the next day.

Anyway, I think we might see a spike 2-3 weeks hence, as much as I’d love to see the virus just go away.

Warm walk

It took me 2:12:40 to do; pace was relaxed and while I had some “bum burn” (left) for the first 4-5; the final 2 miles were downright pleasant, but a bit slower.
I was 1:05 at 4.1 (note the Rohman to Swords) and the final 2 took 32:11, so that was a bit slower. It was 33:15 for the, what..2.1 from upper Bradley Park to lower and around, but that included some social distance swerving (glad to do it).

It was warm; low 80’s at the finish, but not oppressively hot.

I’ve had 3 six mile and 1 eight mile walk this week; the build up to a possible fall “virtual marathon” will continue. Yes, no football or marathons for me this fall. 2021?
This week: workouts have gone better, though a lessening of stress (sort of…) has helped..that will change.
There is just so much uncertainty in all of our lives now; perhaps it has always been there but I’ve been blissfully unaware of it.

Mind you, I have better job security than most (NOT perfect job security, just better job security). I am by no means in the “don’t worry, be happy” zone but, well, we shall see. There WILL be pain and unpleasantness, and I should take advantage of the time I have now to learn and get ahead of some things.