Day: May 5, 2020

How to get me aboard with reopening efforts

First, let’s dispense with the misconception that US COVID-19 death rates are inflated. Yes, hospitals might have financial incentive to declare a death to be by COVID-19 (e. g. someone has terminal cancer, gets COVID-19 and dies…was that really COVID-19?)

But what we can do is to look at our usual death rate at this time of the year as a baseline and compare current deaths (just total deaths..no matter the cause) to that baseline.
And you get something like this:

Death rates are way up over baseline, at least in many locations. Yes, I know, there is going to be some statistical fluctuation and what we have is really a confidence interval of how many “extra deaths” we have. So you don’t have to take the “lying media” or “lying government’s” word for it. Note: this is from April 11….

So, how to get back to normal?

My opinion, as a non-expert: my worry is the spread. Yes, most who get it won’t be that harmed by it, but as long as the disease is spreading, the greater number of physically vulnerable will get caught up in the spread, and, though we know risk factors (age, smoking, obesity) we still don’t quite understand why some get so harmed (and killed by it) and why others aren’t. And, we don’t have a good way of identifying the vast majority who might be vulnerable..it isn’t just the super old, super sick, etc.

IF we can identify those better so that we can, say, pay the working age people some sort of pandemic unemployment so that they don’t feel the need to take unnecessary risk to work and if we can get a good treatment so that the worst cases aren’t so severe, then sure…lets start to open it up again.

I fully accept that as a 60 year old, I’ll have to be more careful and have less freedom than younger people. I can live with that; this is not a “if I can’t do it, neither should you” sort of thing.
And sure, life has risks; I would like the COVID-19 risk to be on the order of “driving to work” type of risk. It is way more than that now.

For me, that’s the thing: identify those who have unacceptably high risk (say, has high as “drunk driving”) and find a way to protect them and provide financial assistance while pandemic is still a problem.

And I’ll say something else: if a business defies orders and reopens, I am done with them. I just did that with one store I used to patronize regularly…including getting a delivery order.

Down in the dumps

Well, classes are over but there are finals to grade..and that won’t be for a while.
And so my mind can dwell on minor stuff: minor pains in the wrist (computer), back (sitting too much plus too much ego in the dead lift), knees (see ego in the deadlift; valgus knees (knock kneed on lifting)).
So today’s somewhat rainy run/walk: well it was 5.3 miles, with about 3.5 of it running/jogging. No pain..but the gait felt “off” ..not free.

I’ll build back up with short runs (2-3 miles) and longer walks (6-8 miles) until it all feels good again.

It isn’t as if I have a race to get ready for.

Our country seems to be at odds with each other; most somewhat support the social distance measures but..well…some take an attitude of “why should I do that because someone else might get very ill and die”.

And, I can understand why rural people and urban people would see things differently…with reason.

Now, for some random thoughts:

1. Every time I see a photo of myself running, lifting, etc. my first reaction is: “OMG, I look awful.” And..well, reality is that my heaviest bench press in ages has been in the low 190’s, my best shoulder press is about 115 (strict, not a push press), best dead was 267 so…I AM a weak person. Period. and I am slow too; I may have run a handful of sub 9 minute miles this year.
I know, “age group, etc.” but in absolute terms, I am weak and slow and it pisses me off.

I need to remember that WRT to COVID 19 too. Yes, I claim I am extra vigilant due to my wife, but..she might actually be better situated to deal with it than I am!

Political Irony
The Republicans against Trump make much better ads than we do.

And there is something else going on: as a society we’ve gotten to a point where we don’t have a “we are in this together” mentality; something that seems to be more prevalent in other countries. Our diversity might well work against us here (and I mean different cultures, lots of rural area with a lot of people in urban areas, etc.) That works against us in times like these.