Reassessing the Democratic race

Yes, I know, the Democratic race will be won state by state and not by national polls.

And yes, Biden leads in the national polls by a comfortable margin:

36-17-8-5 (Harris poll: numbers are Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren).

But in the same Harris poll, Biden leads Harris 41-38 in head to head, Sanders 43-41 and TRAILS Warren 39-41 (ok, all are within “margin of error”)

But the point is, it appears that Biden doesn’t go up that much from 36 on the head-to-head match ups, but the other goes up. So, things could get interesting. Will the D primary go to “Joe” vs. “not Joe”? And if so…the “not Joe” may well have an excellent chance.

And…it might be that Bernie hanging around will hurt the “not-Joe”.

Who knows. And CAVEAT The Harris is just one poll. The Echelon Insights poll have Joe blowing away the competition in the head-to-head, with 61-25 vs. Sanders, and 6x-(less than 20) for all other challengers.

Final Galesburg Half Marathon: recalibrating

This is the last year I will do the RunGalesburgRun Half Marathon. Reason: the RD is bring the race to a close. I understand why: it is a lot of work and it is tough to get someone to take it over. But it has had a successful run, and I’ll miss it. I’ll give heart-felt thanks to the RD and all of the wonderful volunteers.

I’ve done half of them: 2012 (walk 2:30), 2013 (run: 2:01), 2017 (walk 2:47), 2019 (run 2:26)

Stats: Time: 2:26:38, 163/188 overall, 21/23 AG (50-59 M), 91/99 among all males. Pace: 11:12. (yes, in the past, I’ve walked faster half marathons; last time being 2014) Yeah, pathetic, especially given that I was rested AND we had a nice, cool day (60’s, little humidity)

The issue: it was a combination of training and attitude. Training: I’ve had a slew of runs in the 6-9 mile range and that is adequate to get through a half marathon at a training run pace…which come to think of what I did…but it is not adequate for running a half marathon at a pace consummate with one’s 5K pace. Today: my half marathon was 5.37 times my 5K race pace, and when I am in shape to run a half, the ratio is 4.6. The reason: mileage AND the lack of the 14-16 mile training runs.

My splits (some of them I suspect are inaccurate) tell the story:

9:51, 10:16, 10:31, 7:24 (38:03 for 4), 22:00 (next 2, stop to drink) 1:00:03 for 6, 11:21 (walks starting now), 12:15 (1:23:40 for 8), 11:33 (1:35:13 for 9, or 1:38 for 15K by someone’s garmin), 11:58 (1:47:11 for 10), 11:50 (1:59:02 for 11), 13:56 (2:12:59) (stop to loosen laces), 2:26:37 (13:38 for 1.1).

My second half was 15 minutes longer than my first; and most of THAT was due to my legs being completely shot. But note that my run/walk miles were, well, what my training miles often are. The issue: I went out too fast for my training.

Melody blew past me at mile 10 and though we were close at 11…well, she finished in 2:21. Those two 13 minute miles killed me. Also, “green top”, “pinkie” (pink spandex shorts) and “bro hat” all got away from me, though I had leap frogged with them up to 12. I really just didn’t care *all* that much toward the end, though I kept moving forward.

And afterward, my feet burned (toes too?) top of right foot ached from laces being too tight.

But the upshot: the training miles and the long runs just weren’t there and it showed. Good news: I was at 1:38 at 15K, though I doubt that Steamboat will be this cool…and there are those two hills. I had better start out a whole lot easier.

Note: the pros were awesome. The winner ran a 1:04 (averaged under 5 minutes a mile) and the female winner averaged 5:46, and had a competitor challenging her. She was a 56-57 minutes at mile 10 (you could see them on the out and back portions…amazing athletes).

Recalibration: I’ll just say it. Back in “the day” (yes, I am finishing a half marathon here: Madison, 2000)

I ran with a group of very fit looking people..most of them young.

Now, there are two types of people around me: older people, and “not so athletic” young people. Yes…2:26 sucks for just about anyone and it especially sucks for a young person. I get no “ego boost” from “running with the crowd” (and yes, I know, 1:35 is “young man’s slow” but it is a decent standard of fitness for a 40 year old man…as I was then).

I just have to remind myself of what my yoga teacher: “no judgement..just doing what your body allows”. And until I get those long runs in, my body won’t allow for much.

Humorous note A couple of photographers caught me doing yoga in the staging area prior to the race (not where you line up); I’m sure my form was awful. 🙂