Day: June 17, 2019

Democrats and the race to compete with Trump

Ok, who is going to win the nomination? I like Sen. Klobuchar but she is getting very little traction at all. But at least, as a Senator, she is popular with her constituents, as is Sen. Sanders.

But guess who is (relatively) unpopular with their own constituents? Given that Massachusetts is a blue state, that is not good.
And, Dear Reader, THAT is what we are talking about when we talk about how “likable” a candidate is…do the VOTERS or WOULD BE VOTERS like them?

Source for the above: Morning Consult quarterly approval ratings.

Early polls: show both good and bad news for Biden: Yes, Biden leads and, sans any preconditioning, this bodes well. BUT if one factors in his sky-high name recognition, his chances of winning the nomination are probably a bit less than 50 percent. Sure, that is greater than any other individual contender, but NOT greater than all of the other contenders put together.

Oh, “woke Twitter” doesn’t like him…”gee, when he talks to little girls he doesn’t follow the script that I want”…as if most D’s care about such things.

Frankly, our attitude (“our” meaning liberal, educated Democrats) sucks. Yes, this is a George Will article but:

Democrats must make amends with the 402 other counties that voted for Trump after voting for Obama at least once. This will require the Democrats’ progressive lions to lay down with the Democrats’ moderate lambs, a spectacle as biblical as it is inimical to progressives’ pride about their wokeness. They might, however, be encouraged to be more politically ecumenical by remembering this: In 2016, Clinton won cumulatively a million more votes than Obama did in 2012 in New York, Massachusetts and California, but won one million fewer than he received everywhere else.

Everything, however, depends on Democrats jettisoning, before they allow it to influence their selection of a candidate, their self-flattering explanation of 2016. As William Voegeli, senior editor of the Claremont Review of Books, has written:

Ascribing the 2016 election to your opponents’ bigotry makes clear that the problem was not that Democrats didn’t do enough to deserve people’s votes, but that the people weren’t good enough to deserve Democrats’ governance. . . . One imagines that, sooner rather than later, even Democrats will come to suspect that denigrating people until they vote for you lacks a certain strategic plausibility.

Oh, how we LOVE to “wokesplain.”

How regular people vote (hint: it isn’t the candidate’s white paper)

Good arguments don’t cut it either: (and yes, we sometimes..ok, often..overestimate how strong our arguments are; being certain does NOT mean being accurate)

And when we attack, direct, simple attacks might be fore effective:

Like this one:

Health and taking things for granted

There was someone that I met some time ago (2000 I think) that I reconnected with on FB. She would often comment on articles; I enjoyed the interaction.

But in my self-centered business, I didn’t notice that she had stopped commenting until today; I ran across an article that I thought that she might like and wondered what she’d think of it …then…”wow..I haven’t seen her in a while.”

I found out that she had died some time ago (months).

We were not close (obviously) but I did enjoy our exchanges. I did notice that she seemed to have that “not well” look about her; frankly many of my fellow baseball fans have a similar look; they struggle mightily to climb steps and move.

This is in great contrast to those who I do running races with; though working out helps our health, this activity draws the “already healthy to begin with” crowd, and much of that is simply good luck.

I really need to become more aware; I have this nasty “out of sight, out of mind” mentality which I think came from my moving around so much. Between grades 1-12, I went to 10 different schools; this is not an exaggeration. 8 of those schools were in my first 8 years.

Workout notes: weights and an easy, pleasant 3 mile walk. weight: 191 (oops! felt bloated)

rotator cuff, pull ups (6 sets of 10..one more than normal), bench: 10 x 135, 2 x 185, 10 x 160, decline: 10 x 160, military: 7 x 50 standing, 15 x 50 seated, supported, 15 x 40 standing, 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm rows. goblet squats: 6 x 25, 30, 30, 40. (one lifter noted my pain..got the depth anyway), plank, crow (ok), headstand, knee stretches.

Did some work on the “n-ball volume” problem and am closing in on finishing Joe Biden’s book.

Steamboat weekend and event

I remember my first Steamboat race. I lined up just behind the 7 minute per mile sign..with justification. I ran hard and beat some rivals. But alas, I was disappointed as I was hoping for 1:04-1:05, but the day came up steamy.

This time, 21 years later, I was to finish much further back in the pack..and it took me 30 minutes longer. But this time, I was ok with it.

More detailed splits: 9:43, 10:20, 11:42 (1.1), 41:38 at 4, 52:32 at 5, 14:25 for 1.2 (?), 1:15:17 at 7, 1:25:54 at 8, 12:42 for the final 1.3

Note: the midway “places” made no sense as some were not picked up by the wet equipment..or at least transmitted properly. I did lose a few places in the middle 5K and few more in the final 5K, but ultimately I held my own reasonably well.

Here I am at 5K.

Here I am with 1 mile to go:

And yes, it rained hard.

(these are 6:25 mpm runners just past 5K in their 4 mile race…yes..this USED to be my pace back in 1981-1982)

And here is one of the lovely Crystal who won her AG in the 4 mile, cranking out 7:30 miles at 55+ years of age:

The race: Because of the flooding by the river, there were some modifications. The race started on main street and then followed the usual course until lower Glenn Oak. The 15K then did 3 loops, each with one steep but much shorter uphill. The path through upper Glenn Oak did not have the hair pin turns the traditional course had.

The day came up: mid 60’s, overcast, then rainy. I’d say it started to rain just as we got to the hill and rained fairly hard for about 40-45 minutes.

I walked and jogged from the house and got there about 35 minutes before the race stared; plenty of time for that final pit stop. This time: it was just me..Lynnor was in recovery and was to meet up with Barbara and do the 2 mile, which started about 1 hour after our race did. I hoped to see them on the course.

At the start line I had a chance encounter with Tracy, who I would see later for a ball game. She did well..though the cold rain bothered her (felt good to me).

I lined up behind the 10 minute per mile sign (with Melody) and had a bit of trouble with discipline. There was some weaving but not that much. I really didn’t pay attention to anyone in particular though I could see Lupe for a while. Finally, up around the hill is where the rain started. I took it slowly, trying to pace myself. I took one drink per loop. Note: could see runners starting their second loop just as we got there..the leaders were already past.

On the loops, I just tried to maintain; relaxing up the hill and attempting to spin/stretch on the upper part. I heard a few “hi xxx”, “good job Professor”, “good job Dr. yyy” while on the loop as I got passed by students lapping me. Sigh…I’ve become what I feared becoming 20 years ago: a shuffling “soft body”.

Each uphill took a bit out of me and I had to force myself to spin a bit (take some quicker steps). The thighs started to get a bit heavy around mile 5 (still feeling ok) and were really heavy during the 3’rd loop. But I told myself “NO WALKING.”

I recognized a few people on the upper parts but…well, not that many. This was not the old “friends reunion” it once was…that saddens me a bit. Also, my 1998 self would have been exiting my final loop just before my 2019 self was starting the 3’rd.

But back to 2019…my heavy legs carried me down loop 3 and a lady caught me; I got her back and noticed the long line of people ahead of me. I was to catch ..well, most none of them. I told myself “be steady and finish.”

And I was; this was just like I did on my training runs, though perhaps at a slightly faster pace. As I closed in…we hooked up with the last mile of the 2 mile course..and there was Lynnor and Barbara!
Two women were closing in on me but had not passed so my yelling “HAWT BABES…NICE BUTTS” could not have been intended for anyone other than L and B.

They yelled stuff back at me and I was so determined to not stop. But I still had work to do..about 10 minutes of running to go. Finally I could see the Civic Center and I knew that I didn’t have that much left and that Main Street was downhill. Then down I went and finally…the finish banner (at first hidden by the downhill). I did see the clock tick past 1:40 but I knew that I had about 1:20 of “get to the start line” time.

Afterward I walked back up the course to see L and B and get some photos. Then came the post race socializing (ok, just a bit of it).

Race Socializing

A quick selfie with a somewhat anxious Tracy (she was a bit worried about the upcoming rain, I think).

Getting ready to walk to the “silent start” (with a flag).

I got these two of B and L heading toward the finish.

L decided to playfully “moon” me on the way down…

The official “cross the line” photo of L and B.

Cassie found us and took a selfie with me…and I got one with her, L and B. LOVE it.

After a quick change of clothes, we had a couple of ours of coffee drinking and yapping at Starbucks.

In the evening, Tracy and I went to a Chiefs game wearing our Steamboat shirts.

B caught a few innings of the game with us.

Ok, the game was a rout; Burlington hit 3 home runs and had a no-hitter ..and allowed only 1 base runner for the first 8 innings. In the bottom of the 9’th the Chiefs got a second base runner, a steal and a hit (with 2 outs left) to break it up..still it was a 7-1 loss.

Sunday: short 5 mile walk. Then I got to see the Chiefs dominate 7-2, piling up 13 hits..the pitchers throwing strikes and this time, the Chiefs got some home runs. Ok, they did too. Nevertheless, it was a nice win.

Yes, one of the Corn mascots (Al, I think) wilted in the heat a bit.

Past Steamboats

(list of prior race reports)

1998: 15K 1:08:22 183/844 (sticky) Was running just under 20 for 5K in those days. 22:50/23:05/22:27, 29/71 AG 167/603 men
1999: 15K 1:07:53 187/725, place was a bit worse; roughly 20:40 for 5K in these days 22:38/23:01/22:13 39/76 AG, 170/511 men
2000: 4m 27:51 After a 10K/half marathon double and 1:35 half a few weeks earlier.
2001: 4m 29:13 Lake Geneva Marathon 3:40
2001: 15K 1:11:16 (126/381) Fall 15K 23:20/24:04/23:51
2002: 4m 43:15 (walk)
2002: 15K 1:14:33 (run; fall) 167/405 24:10/25:07/25:16
2004: 4m 33:10 (two 24 hour walks in May; 101 and 88)
2005: 15K 1:23:13 (26:40/27:39/28:43) McNaughton 100 in April, Marathon on Memorial Day.
2006: 4M 42:10 (walk), FANS 24 in June (83 miles)
2007: Walk with Barbara
2008: Walk with Barbara
2009: run 1:27:23 (9:22 mpm) Place: 519/726 29:21/29:49/28:43, 34/43 AG
2010: walk 4 miles 39:32.
2011: walk 15 km 1:48:02 37:12/36:24/34:26
2012: run 15 km 1:36:55 29:26/33:54/33:35 679/835
2013: 15K 1:29:04 (29:34/29:53/29:38) 40/50 AG, 552/866
2014: 1:29:57 (29:22/30:46/29:49)
2015: 1:34:28 (30:49/32:49/30:50) (2 weeks after FANS 59.9) 579/804, 376/461 males, 173/219 male masters, 36/43 AG
2016: 1:41:57: 31:40/34:37/35:40 667/822, 413/458 male, 196/221 master male, 30/33 AG.
2017: walk 1:55:52: 37:04/39:41/39:07 Just not in very good shape.
2018: 2:15:55 walk/jog…gave up after 2 miles and mostly walked (22:15). 39:20/48:19/48:16
2019: 1:38:36 31:44/35:12/31:40 (3 loop version, rainy and cool)

year 4m 15K 4k/2m big 2 all change 2 % change change all % change
2013 3124 866 98 3990 4088 na na na na
2014 2613 776 111 3389 3500 -601 -0.1506 -588 -0.1438
2015 2443 805 156 3248 3404 -141 -0.0416 -96 -0.0274
2016 2347 822 157 3169 3326 -79 -0.0243 -78 -0.0229
2017 1781 666 151 2447 2598 -722 -0.2278 -728 -0.2189
2018 1860 660 122 2520 2642 +73 +.028 +44 +.018
2019 1490 545 120 2035 2155 -485 -.1925 -487 -.1843

Though there was a big decline from 2013 to 2014, there was a massive drop from 2016 to 2017. The race rebounded a bit in 2018, then 2019 saw another drop..IN FINISHERS…though this could well have been due to the threat of storms. Note: the short distance was either 2 miles or 4 km. I compared the drop in all three races and the drop in the total of the “big 2” (15k and 4 m put together). I show the absolute drop, and the percentage drop.