Reassessing the Democratic race

Yes, I know, the Democratic race will be won state by state and not by national polls.

And yes, Biden leads in the national polls by a comfortable margin:

36-17-8-5 (Harris poll: numbers are Biden, Sanders, Harris, Warren).

But in the same Harris poll, Biden leads Harris 41-38 in head to head, Sanders 43-41 and TRAILS Warren 39-41 (ok, all are within “margin of error”)

But the point is, it appears that Biden doesn’t go up that much from 36 on the head-to-head match ups, but the other goes up. So, things could get interesting. Will the D primary go to “Joe” vs. “not Joe”? And if so…the “not Joe” may well have an excellent chance.

And…it might be that Bernie hanging around will hurt the “not-Joe”.

Who knows. And CAVEAT The Harris is just one poll. The Echelon Insights poll have Joe blowing away the competition in the head-to-head, with 61-25 vs. Sanders, and 6x-(less than 20) for all other challengers.

Author: oldgote

I enjoy politics, reading, science, running, walking, (racewalking and ultrawalking) hiking, swimming, yoga, weight lifting, cycling and reading. I also follow football (college and pro), basketball (men and women) and baseball (minor league and college)

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