Day: August 6, 2021

What will happen in Sturgis?

Ok, Sturgis starts today.

I’ll assume: 200,000 attendees there on a given day.

I’ll assume they come from a 70/100,000 a day new case location (based on Missouri, Arkansas, etc) which over a 7 day period works to 490/100000; I’ll make that 500 per 100,000 infected.

Calculation 1

The r_0 for delta is 5-6; I’ll call it 5, and assume that each biker spreads it for 2 days.

so, I calculate: {500 \over 100000}200000 (5^2) = 25000 new infections, and given a 1-2 percent mortality rate (older, less healthy group) about 250-500 deaths.

Calculation 2 Assuming a spread similar to that in a deep southern state, that is about 1 percent per day or 200 new infections per day, for a total of 1400 infections.

Then using 2 percent mortality (older, more obese population), 28 deaths…very different from the first. I wonder if this is low as people in a state aren’t as clumped together as in the first model?

BUT this assumes that they have a southern state vaccination rate; lower might lead to the first calculation and higher means that there will be less death than in the second calculation.

In short: I do not know. The spread between my two answers shows that.

Now the wait.

PS: yes, Lollapalooza was dumb; we are seeing positive tests already.

Last Lazy Day

Time to get on the stick. A couple of things:

  1. my typical workout (without yoga class) will take about 2:30 to finish; this includes a 30 minute cycle session, rehab and whatever weights I am doing. It can’t be helped. I need to plan accordingly.
  2. I do have some time to write and I had better get to it.
  3. Football? I have my tickets and masks all ready to go..but if COVID cases are still surging and there are any sort of crowd…maybe give up my tickets to a younger person. Baseball isn’t a problem because crowds are kind of sparse.
  4. My upper body looks like crap. No getting around it; I need to drop 20 lb if I want to look decent.
  5. Shoulder felt better last night; glute was TIRED and stiff..sore in a different way (like I pushed it too much)

Today: rehab ..actually, no weights at all..strange. I’ll try to remember most of what I did. The non-rehab stuff:

  1. pull ups: 2 sets of 5, 2 sets of 10, 4 sets of 5 (2 chin up style), 5 singles “penalty set”
  2. push ups: 3 sets of 20 with better depth then 2 sets of 10 with lower handles.
  3. rows with resistance cords. Last set: I used red, green and blue together. (3 sets)
  4. single arm curls with resistance cords. I used green and blue together. (3 sets)

Rehab stuff: 2 sets of: “spinal balance with band”, “side single leg left for gluteus medius”, 3 sets of chest taps (video..need to work on these), 2 sets of banded walk; multiple sets of high elbow rows, low arm rows, lat pull downs, single arm rotator cuff, 2 sets of dumbbell rotator cuff.

Lots of chest stretching (with band) and piriformis type stretching.

Perturbation training (spinal balance; wife helped me)

Then 31 minutes (10 fake miles) on the cycle.

It doesn’t seem like this should have taken this much time, but it does.

Videos: 2 of the 3 sets of chest taps: way too much hip motion, and a bit less: