Tag: 2016 election

How I think the election will go down

Via Electoral Vote:

The dark blue is where Biden has a lead of 10 or more points (over several recent polls). The light blue: the leads are: 6 points in Pennsylvania, 8 in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada.

The dark blues are 233 EV worth and the light blues are 46 more EV for 279 EVs.
Bottom line: Trump has to win Ohio (rated even), win every blue outline state, and hold his red outline states AND pick off one light blue state ..a very tall order.

It can be done (Fivethirtyeight gives him a 10 percent chance).

Now IF the polls are as off as they were in 2016 (in Trump’s favor) this is how it looks:

(via The Upshot (New York Times)

So even with that sort of shift, Biden wins.

But we shall see: the only win is a win.

My 2016: (that week, 4 years ago)

TL;DR election memories: 2016

Yes, Biden’s chances appear to be around 90 percent. And I could go on and on about how this is not 2016 (and statistically, it isn’t..not even close) but ..

I’d be lying to say that I wasn’t nervous, because I am. Yes, Trump could *legitimately* win the Electoral College. But that isn’t what this post is about.

In 2016 I followed and when I made my own map, I came up with a 90 percent “confidence interval” map which had HRC getting about 320 EV. But my first evolution showed…a Trump victory in the lower tail (278) so..what should have been my better judgement (“no, that can’t be right”) I joggered it a bit to get that to 268 …just less than what he needed.

BUT…in my statistics class we were studying independent/dependent random variables and I used election models as an example.

I explained the models that gave Trump no chance assumed that polling errors were independent random variables and those that gave Trump about a 30 percent chance assumed that they were correlated random variables.

I went on to say “either candidate could win; Clinton is the favorite but a very modest one..on the order of being a field goal favorite in football.” If Trump won, it would be a modest upset at best..much more likely than the Cubs rally to win the WS.

I couldn’t believe what cane out of my mouth, but I had my professor’s hat on and was speaking professionally.

Election night:

I didn’t watch the returns but instead watched a MAC game (Western Michigan vs, Toledo, I think) I did have my laptop open to the Upshot Needle which gave the probability of who would win..at first 50+ for Clinton..then I watched the needle slowly but steadily move toward Trump as the votes came in.

B came home (worked the polls) and went to bed as she had been up since 3 am. She did NOT see the tide turn.

But…turn it did …and my IM started to blow up.

I was getting anguished IM’s of “what the hell is going on” from both Carmen and Linda and phone calls from Tracy. Lynnor told me that things were looking bad.

So I spent most of the evening consoling my 3 friends …and when Wisconsin was called, I knew it was over.

So I went up to bed.

Barbara sleepily opened one eye and said “how did it go?”
I replied “you don’t want to know.”

Welp…wide awake..and I told her that Trump had won;

Afterward, I was fuming, upset at Clinton’s unforced campaign errors, the Bernie or bust bros and the ridiculous woke left which I think hurt us. I felt it was if our side had turned the ball over 6 times and tried to campaign as if our country was a university campus.

And so here we are….and believe me, though my head tells me that Biden will win, I’ve got that Illini fan attitude that we will find a way to screw it up and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That’s what Democrats not named Bill or Barack do.

We have an opening vs. Trump. Will we blow it?

No, Trump’s numbers are not good, especially given the economy isn’t doing that poorly, overall. His numbers are roughly what Reagan’s were at this point in his presidency (scroll down a bit to see the comparison). And there isn’t enough “room” in the economy for him to be rescued by a “Morning in America” the way that Reagan was.

And to many, it appears as if the economy is top heavy; the benefits are…surprise…NOT trickling down and many are noticing. Add that to Trump’s toxic demeanor and he isn’t in great shape.

Yes, I know; the 2018 elections ..but remember that Obama bounced back from a rough 2010 (the were key differences; in 2010, you saw the effects of a rough health care vote AND many McCain CDs coming home to the Republicans).

Still, IMHO, the Democratic field appears to be a hot mess, and the D’s appear to have their knives out for each other:

I should probably just get off of Twitter. But you have people going after male candidates (now it is time for a WOMAN…ok, I happen to back one but I really, really like Amy Klobuchar and her sex has zero to do with it) people going after white candidates, people saying that owning a handgun ought to be disqualifying (no, NOT the Onion…USA Today!)

There are times when I don’t like liberals either…and this is one of them.

We can be so sanctimonious. And we are, at times, incapable of introspection. If anyone attempts an honest “ok, what could WE have done better in the 2016 general election” be prepared to be flamed online. That Russian interference and the Comey letter hurt us (at least a little) is undeniable. But to think that we didn’t play a part in the loss…OMG, what can I say.

Activists just don’t DO introspection ..any negative outcome is *always* the result of unfairness or the result because the other voters just aren’t as moral, informed, smart and principled as WE are. The idea that we might have alienated anyone or had a faulty strategy or used ineffective tactics is pure anathema!