White men (or just men) and MAGA

I am usually amused by articles/posts like this one:

I think it is far more basic than this.

First of all, let me pay a compliment to the Harris campaign: I love their “Red, White and Blue” stuff, and they have not been anti-male or anti-white, etc.

But, much of where one ends up politically depends on the public “vibe” of those who vote a certain way. And to be honest, many liberal activists are open hostile to “cis-gender hetero white men”; they, of course, are the main cause of all of the country’s problem and the possessors of something known as “privilege.”

And so, why would a white male, or even a male in general, be attracted to such a party? People are not going to stay where they are told to “shut up and listen to….” or to be told to vote as if they were in demographic X.

Add to that the tendency for liberal activists to support every social outlier while almost sneering at the mainstream and we have a “no place for me here” type situation.

I don’t like Ann Coulter but…there is a nugget of truth here:

And so…what to do?

I’d remind my brothers of this: yes, some, even many who vote D are full of it and unpleasant to be around. Yes, you DO have valid grievances.

But when push comes to shove, you have much more in common with the Black guy working with you outside in 30 F and sleeting weather than you do of the 800,000 dollar a year manager who is looking to cut your position so as to enhance his bonus, and Trump is fully on that manager’s side, not yours.

You have legitimate grievances and there are lots of clueless liberals who won’t admit that. But voting for Trump won’t help you *at all*; a Harris administration will do more for you than a Trump one will, even if some Harris officials use “they/them.”

Please don’t thumb your nose at the toxic liberal “activist” loudmouth at the expense of your own welfare.

So, how is the election going?

Basically, this. But most of the swing states are within margin of error. The October 17 version of ElectoralVote.com has an interesting chart:

I’ll assume no more than a 4 point polling error in either direction, and that polling errors are positively correlated (same direction in each swing state). If we have a 2016 effect (shy Trump voter) where Trump is underpolling by 4 points, we could see this:

If the polls are under counting Harris voters (like in the 2022 midterms) the map could look like this:

Note: giving there are 538 votes, she can’t have a 271 edge, since 2x+271 is odd. This this edge is 276 which is close enough. And no, I don’t think there is a snowball’s chance in Hades of this map happening.

I see 317 as a realistic possibility for Trump and 322 for Harris. Where we actually end up? Who knows…the 2016 effect or the 2022 effect?

Looking forward to this one

At long last, I have a ticket to an Illinois home game where the tickets are at least 100 dollars apiece, to sit..anywhere. So, what will I see?

Yes, this is not Michigan of last year; far from it. But while the Wolverines are 4-2, their losses were on the road to Washington (they blew a lead) and a 31-12 hammering at home by no. 1 Texas.

And..Michigan is a running team. Against FBS competition, the Illini have given up 4.94 yards per rush, stopping only Nebraska.

My heart says “Illinois” and they DO have a shot: the Illini passing attack is real. But so is the Michigan pass rush, and even sad-sack Purdue had sacks and one strip and sack, and perilously close to TWO strip sacks.

So, my head says “bad match-up” for the Illini. I’ll say something like 23-17 Michigan.

Still, I can’t wait for this game to start.

Feeling a bit …better

The fall type weather is hear. Wearing more clothes does affect pull ups a bit..or it could be stiff joints.
5, 5, 10 singles, then sets of 5, 5, 10, 5, 5 some with scapular starts.
Downstairs: bench: 10 x 134 then 3 sets of 5 x 134 incline.
deadlifts: low: 10 x 134, 10 x 184, 4 inch: 10 x 224. 6 inch: 10 x 280

Then a relatively quick 2 mile walk (13:38) and a 2 mile commuter walk over lunch.

The ankle is looking better.

Things are going ok, but I am just feeling anxious and antsy.

Swollen ankle?

I know that I had banged my ankle against the trap bar end a while ago. The left ankle is puffy.

Does not seem to affect much, though I’ll have to get some warm weather gear for tomorrow’s walk.

Today: commuter walks totaling 4 miles. Weights: pull ups: sets of 5 (mostly); it was colder and a bit of a struggle; not that bad.

bench: 10 x 134, 7 x 150, 6 x 150, 5 x 150
high incline: sets of 10 x 84 (3 sets), 3 sets of curls.

Decisions and what a game it was….

First note: a close lot is available for 25 dollars..keep that in mind for future use. I badly overpaid by getting the prepaid parking on Stub hub BUT I did save a great deal on my ticket prices (club seats..took the wife who can’t walk far)

I had almost passed on this game to watch Illinois State (who was ranked in FCS) battle Missouri State (also ranked). That was 24-0 Bears at the half and ended 41-7; the Redbirds laid a massive egg. So glad I did not pass on the Purdue game to watch that.

So, what game did I watch? Well, Purdue came in with only 1 win (vs an FCS team) and had lots 66-7 to ND (at home no less) and 52-6 to Wisconsin. So, no problem right? The Illini were favored by 21.

Starting out: Purdue started with a good drive but failed on 4’th and 1 (screen pass?) and the Illini cashed it in. 3-0 quickly. Another stop, another drive and it was 10-0.

Purdue did break a long play but had to settle for a field goal; 10-3. Another Illini drive; 17-3 and then the Illini kick off was caught by the wind, bounced between two Purdue players and was recovered. The Illini cash in, AGAIN and now it is 24-3 going into the half.

One storm cloud: Purdue had 137 rushing yards in the half.

Second half: drive and the Illini kicker just crushes a 49 yard field goal into the wind. It is 27-3 and the stadium settles in for the execution.

Purdue had other ideas.

Their quarterback (not the regular starter, who was out) hits a long bomb for a TD: 27-10.

Then on the next possession, the Illini quarterback got sacked, fumbled and a scoop and score makes it 27-17 and now the stadium gets nervous.

The Illini drive but fail on 4’th down. Purdue hits a big flea flicker to inside the Illini 10 but a penalty pushes them back. They are held to a field goal and not it is 27-20

Now to the 4’th quarter and the Illini, lead by quarterback keepers and scrambles drive and appear to take control 34-20.
Not so fast: the Boilermakers chop up the Illini defense and score a TD..go for 2 and make it. Now: 34-28.

No worries: the Illini drive and score..again! A 2 point conversion is good but is nullified by a penalty. They go for 2 again (5 minutes are left; I understand the decision) and fail. So: 40-28 with 5 minutes to go…

You know the drill: Purdue burns quite a bit of clock and are inside the Illini 20 at the 2 minute warning. And yep..the score and kick the point: 40-35 with 1:46 to go.

Onside kick, right? The Illini fail to cover it and Purdue is in business…again.

Then the Boilermakers score and go for 2 with 46 seconds left. They make it and now it is 43-40, Boilers.

But the Illini have passed very well and have a cannon-legged kicker. Sure enough: drive to get the typing field goal, though the Illini benefited from a “no fumble” call that stood upon review.

So, it is 43-43 and going into overtime.

It takes the Illini one pass play to score and they are up 50-43. Now it is Purdue’s turn: it takes them 2 plays to score and now it is 50-49..and they go for 2. But the Illini run a cleverly disguised blitz to pressure the quarterback, and the inexperienced QB does not see the wide open hot receiver to the right.

Sack and the game is over.

https://twitter.com/IlliniFB/status/1845244359454662812

This is the sort of game that had both teams making key mistakes..but was also one of the ages. And hand it to the Boilermakers: they didn’t quit when they were down 27-3 in the 3’rd or down 40-28 with 2 minutes to go.

So, where do we go from here?

The Illini have 1 very tough game left (Oregon) and 5 (more or less) toss up games left. I’d say that the Michigan game leans to Michigan (*everyone* has run on us all season) and the Northwestern game leans slightly to Northwestern, the Michigan St. game and the Rutgers game leans toward the Illini, and the Minnesota game is a genuine “who the heck knows” toss up. So, I expect 2-3 more victories this season (7-5 to 8-4) though…given how badly this defense got torched ….this being the final win of the season is not out of the question. I guess 9-3 isn’t out of the question either, but I highly doubt it.

Other notes:
No. 1 Texas beat Oklahoma 34-3 and is deserving of its no. 1 ranking. ND beat Stanford 49-7 and is solidly near the top of the second 10, where they belong. Navy is ranked in the AP poll (sentimental?) Navy’s schedule is really too weak to warrant that ranking and tough games vs ND and Tulane remain, along with toss up type games against USF and a very tough Army team.

But..all of my teams are ranked in the AP poll and all but Navy are ranked in the coaches poll.

I’d rather not talk about Illinois State right now.

The tame part of my weekend: the workouts

I’ll talk more about the football game in the next post. And what a game it was!

But first, I got a 10.3-10.4 mile walk in 2:38: partial around the Goose loop to the ball field and back. Pace was 15:15-15:30 or so; Moss to home was 15:30. Sunny day; didn’t really push.

Today: some deadlifts with the trap bar and a W. Peoria 5K plus walk in 45:50 (via Moss); sunny and breezy. New shoes.
Deadlifts: 10 x 134, 10 x 190, 10 x 225 low.
6 inch: 5 x 300, 4 x 300 (grip slipped a bit before rep 5 and did not want to strain). Legs were quivering afterward.

Finding the balance

Tomorrow, I hope to go for a walk and get it done by 10 am. Can leave no latter than 7.

Today: 2 mile commuter walk over lunch; the morning weight session:
pull ups: mostly sets of 5 though I had one of “almost 10” with 2 penalty reps..some I used the scapular set up.
Downstairs: 10 x 134 bench followed by 3 sets of 5 x 134 incline.
4 inch handle trap bar: 10 x 134, 10 x 184, 10 x 224 (all with a pause at the bottom)

Election: via Electoral Vote.com

Here is the issue: polling error. The swing states are within the margin of error, and polling error is likely a dependent variable: being off in one direction in one states makes it likely that it is off in the same direction on other states.

So, the upshot is that either candidate can realistically get 320-340 EV..but which one?

In a strange twist: the regular voters favor Harris but the “irregular voters” favor Trump.

I would not bet a nickle on this election.