This time I was 47:39 at 4 and 47:43 for the second half; 14 minutes for the 1.25 leg. I wore my new shoes. Gray, chilly but dry and I wore a sweat shirt. But I did have a “speed” workout two days ago. Still..the legs didn’t exactly bounce me up the hills.
187.0 prior to running on the house scale.
Yes, I know, I am talking a LOT about Joe Biden, and he isn’t even my candidate. I support Amy Klobuchar, who represents my values and has a highly competent record in the Senate.
But Biden being in the race has caused some shake up.
I will explain.
I remember seeing this back in 2015 and thinking “you know, what Trump says about political correctness will resonate with many and not just with Republicans.”
Notice the applause after the “politically correctness” remark.
Seriously, people really are sick of it. And yes, that includes 33 percent of Democrats and yes, this includes a fair number of liberal intellectuals. And yes, this includes me.
Now in my case: I reject scolds of all varieties, including the right wing religious scolds.
And well, I am sensitive to this as I think it harms dialogue; all too often discussions between people devolve into shouting matches, with the competing sides being unwilling to try to see it as the other side(s) see it.
And yes, the right wing bears much of the blame (“if you disagree you are UNAMERICAN, evil or stupid”) but they do not bear ALL of the blame; far from it.
No, no worries: my state will almost certainly vote for the Democrat, and no, I am not voting Trump, no matter how distasteful I find the hyperwoke. And Trump’s act is right wing political correctness, on steroids.
And no, I do not approve or racial slurs, sexual harassment, etc. The things I am talking about are things like, say, the politically motivated attacks on Steven Pinker and his work in The Blank Slate, deplatforming based on disagreement with views, and yes, even some of the unfair attacks at Rep. Omar. (much from the right wing, but not ALL of it came from the right wing)
But along comes Joe Biden, and, well, he isn’t going to grovel. He isn’t going to exaggerate “past sins” to placate the self-appointed gatekeepers of liberal morality. GREAT.
Oh, the woke are clamoring at how HE is out of touch with “the base”. Of course, it appears to me that when many say “the base” they mean “people like themselves and those they swap twitter hashtags with”) and many of them become indignant when you point out that they don’t represent everyone.
Oh yes, Joe Biden has his issues. I’ve pointed some of them out. But, this article gets it right:
Biden, whose smile is Jack Nicholson’s without the naughtiness, is not angry. His sporadic attempts at seeming so are transparently, and engagingly, synthetic. Neither, however, are most Americans angry. Rather, they are embarrassed and exhausted. Biden has a talent for embarrassing himself, but not the nation, and he probably might seem to weary voters to be something devoutly desired: restful.
And the political science professor behind Gin and Tacos..someone that I often disagree with (re: boomers vs. millennials cultural wars) makes an interesting point: (damn..can’t find the reference so I’ll attempt to paraphrase from memory): much of the Midwest is stuck in a time warp from the mid 1990’s, and that is Joe Biden’s politics. Therefore, he might do well there.
So, I will watch and wait…is it time to resurrect the old dinosaurs? Or do I feel this way because I am an old dinosaur?
Note: I posted this back in 2008 when these were called the McNaughton Trail runs. The new name is Potawatomi Trail Runs, but the course is virtually identical. The name of the park is the John McNaughton Park.
I’ll talk you through one of the 10 mile loops (note: in the 10, you do one loop; in the 30 miler you do 3 of these, 50 miler you do 5 of these, 10 for the 100, and 15 for the 150 and 20 for the 200 (yes, there is one of these)).
UPDATE: erosion has taken its toll; some of the “once grassy meadow” sections are now basically dirt road sections and can be very slick when it is rainy. And one field is now called “the field of wet dreams” because it is, well, swampy instead of grassy.
Note: on race day, the course is very well marked with bright yellow tape and glow sticks.
Note: if the course is muddy, it can become a gigantic mud bath. Here are some examples:
See here for more “mud” photos.
The start is near where the McNaughton Park blacktop road runs out. Note: there is a red arrow pointing to the right (as you look toward the end of the road loop). This is the start of the 7.5 mile “red trail”. If you want to do the trail course, you look left. You’ll see a wide, somewhat muddy trail heading down hill. Start there.
You go down hill and empty out into a field. Starting in 2006, the course turns left and you go around the field, hugging the outstide.
The race course has a “short cut” marked; if you go all the way around you’ll add a couple of minutes to your loop time. Stay around the field (don’t follow the horse trails out!) and, at about .8-.9 miles into it, there will be a small entrance into the woods; that leads you up your first climb.
The entrance can be hard to see during the summer; remember it comes at “almost 1 mile” into it. You go up this hill and empty out into a grassy field.
You can see the start of the course on your right and you head straight across the field toward the woods (near where the woods get closest to the road). This is where the “red trail” starts. Again, this entrance can be hard to find when the course isn’t marked. Here is a summer and a spring view:
Now the trail goes through the woods and you’ll go over several “dipsy doodles” (mini ravines). You’ll also cross several mini streams and possibly pick up some mud. Note: recently, a couple of cool foot bridges have been added. Eventually you’ll turn right and go up your second good uphill
and face another field to cross; this one has a foot path and features tall grass on either side. You’ll cross under some power lines.
You are closing in on mile 2. Then you’ll head back into the woods for some more single track; here you’ll encounter 3-4 more mini-ravines and perhaps a small stream. The footing is mostly good but the ravines are momentum killing. Eventually, you’ll come to yet another footbridge and that means that you are close to exiting this woodsy section.
This takes you to the totem pole aid station, and I have a hard time believing that I don’t have a photo of that. Here, you are at mile 2.5, and this is the first aid station.
Here is Jerry Davidson’s:
From this station, you head out following the red trail, for a little while. Eventually, you break away from the red trail:
Note that the red trail moves off toward the left; to follow the race course you go to the right of the tower that you see. This takes you past a bathroom and through some open fields.
Though this stretch, you might encounter some fallen limbs, maybe a stray root and some gopher tracks/holes. But mostly you can make good time.
When I am out on my own, I always get lost here (and so I usually just follow the red trail). But when it is marked, you can see where to cross the first small rectangular field (short side), and go between two trees into a footpath through the woods. You empty out and follow another field going along the long side of the rectangle, then when the field jogs right, you turn left thought the woods again, and move up over a tiny grassy hill.
Then you hug the field and then turn left through some woods
and this path connects to a very sandy path; you turn right on this path and head downhill.
The down hill area is called “the beach”. Stay on it and then go uphill to leave the sandy area; the path becomes packed dirt again. Then downhill to the first major creek crossing:
Note: during the summer, this crossing is sometimes dry:
And you are about 1/3 of the way through the loop!
Across the creek, you turn right and follow the dirt path. Here (when it isn’t marked for a race) it is easy to get lost and miss that first uphill section; you don’t want to miss that! 🙂
This first post-creek uphill takes you about half way up the bluff that you are about to get familiar with. Then you go down, take the dirt paths that run along side the creek and stretch out those legs getting them ready for the bluff section.
You eventually head toward the bluff and go along side of it for about 100-200 meters until you then make a hard right turn right up the side of the bluff: welcome to golf hill!
You are at about 4 miles into the loop. This hill has a rope during the race.
This starts you on an interesting 1 mile section where you repeatedly go up the bluff and almost all the way back down it:
You do have some flat stretches along the bottom of the bluff. The third uphill is the longest though not the steepest. You have one up-down part on this third uphill,
but eventually you’ll come to the end of this section where you will see this:
That is the signal that you are about to take a long downhill toward the creek. Note that this has been changed this year; no more screaming downhill but rather a more reasonable, gentle downgrade.
This bridge is just a hair shorter than half-way! On the other side, you’ll have a minute or two more of a few minor dipsy-doodles
prior to crossing another small foot bridge and emptying out at the base of a hill, where you will turn left and go up a long uphill, which features a wide trail and another wooden footbridge.
You empty out into a field for about .5 miles worth of easy running or walking: (update: this grassy section is now a bit like a dirt road and instead of providing relief from the mud, can provide a source of more mud)
Along the edge of the field you’ll pass a small family cemetery. Then you’ll pass an easy to miss (when not marked) clearing on the right. This is about 5.8-5.9 miles into it and is called “Heaven’s Gate”. Turn into this clearing and you’ll be at aid station number 2 and 3, as you pass it twice. Head towards the end of the field and you’ll see an entrance into the woods. Follow it, but then when you get on the foot path, take your first right (easy to miss) If you go straight, you’ll cut off about .5 of a mile.
This takes you down toward some woodsy paths that run along side the creek. I call this the slalom course as you frequently twist and turn between the trees. Eventually you empty out into a grassy field and follow that for a while. Update: this is now “The Field of Wet Dreams” section. It can be very swampy if there has been any recent moisture at all. It USED to be a reprieve from the wet and the mud. No longer.
Off to your right, you can see the mile 8-9 section of the loop.
Eventually, you head back through the woods, up hill
and back into the Heaven’s Gate field. You exit that, turn right, and head out along the outer perimeter of the field; you have about 3 miles left in your loop.
Here it gets a bit tricky again if you are not out there when the race course is marked. Keep going so long as you see the red markings on the trees. Update: more dirt path stuff now..grass is mostly gone.
You exit the field to the right and go along a wide grassy clearing.
You keep going until you see woods off on your left, and at about 7.25 miles or so, there is a small opening into the woods:
Yes, that one:
And that takes you through just about a mile of small ups and downs, with perhaps one good sized hill.
You pass over one small footbridge, and at about 8.1-8.2 miles you’ll see a larger one:
Turn right when you cross this bridge; this takes you on a bit more of path which empties into yet another field and a downhill.
Here you get easy grass running/walking for about a quarter of a mile.
When you come back toward the woods, there will be a right turn that you do prior to moving toward a field (where you first went downhill at the beginning of the loop. Turn right and after about 200 meters you’ll find the third steam crossing.
yes, that is Andy, the race director, and on the other side you see where the trail picks up again.
You go up a steep hill and past a hole in the Disc (Frisbee) golf course; don’t be deceived; you still have about 1 mile left.
You go through some woods, alongside the creek again, and then back into the woods on a steep uphill.
This part is the most mentally taxing for me, as it appears that you are finally about to get out of the woods, but then you are directed back into them again. The uphill is followed by a downhill, then two more minor uphills and downhills.
The downhill which has the wooden marking post signifies the end of the last wood section; you then empty out onto the disc golf course!
Turn right, follow the red signs on the trees. This takes you across a field, to a path where you go right. The lake will be on your right as you go past. Then as you see a big uphill on your left, take the hill and go through the clearing. This is the last hill of the loop.
Then as soon as you are on the top, turn hard left and follow the treeline. You’ll go through a clearing toward another “hole” of the golf course, but then turn right through yet another small path.
That path empties you out into yet another field, where you will be able to see the start of the course.
Congratulations; you now have another 4-9-14 of these to do. 🙂
Update: this shows what things can get like if it rains hard:
Note the tape on the tree to the right; that is the kind of tape that is used. I see this as a very bright green but perhaps it is really yellow? 🙂 (re: Brian’s comment)
Here is another photo showing a muddy course and the tape:
Both of these, I believe, come from the stretch between the last stream crossing and the disc golf course.
From here. Note: she worked on some serious stuff; these were not post-offices getting named.
Yes, this is pre-Biden entering the race.
Speaking of Joe Biden: I am seeing some heads exploding. Oh, never mind that he was vetted by Obama..he just has a terrible past, I tell you.
Yes, he has weaknesses: age, gaffes, ..and perhaps you just want someone else. But a monster he isn’t.
Speaking of gaffes: this is one of my favorites:
Yes, Hoover was POTUS during the 1929 crash, and there was no TV; it was all radio.
I had the luxury of walking a 2.2 mile course in the afternoon..I was getting so sleepy at my desk.
Weights this morning: rotator cuff, pull ups: 10-10-10-10-5-5-5 bench: 10 x 135, 3 x 185, dumbbells: 10 x 70, decline: 10 x 165, military: 15 x 50 seated, 10 x 45 standing, 10 x 40 standing, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50 single arm, 10 x 110 machine, planks, knees: 6 x 30, 6 x 50 goblet, 10 x 210 leg press, knee stretches (getting down here a bit more).
Near the end..trying to get it all in without waving my hands too much (that is, without skimping on rigor).
First of all: nice yoga class then 6 miles (10K) of running; to the goose loop, 6 laps (19:27 for 2.16 miles, or about 9 minutes per mile), about 2.5 more miles of cool down (actually felt good). Weight: 185.
Weight: 185. knees: can “touch” a flat block..very uncomfortably.
Politics: Joe Biden’s kick off video spoke to me in the heart; I almost teared up.
College culture: This is weird. Are we experiencing LESS empathy than we did before?
The whole idea of the “woke culture” is supposedly to make “all feel welcome.” But is that what it actually does? I honestly don’t know; I wonder if all of this finger wagging is actually driving us further apart.
These are taken from my previous blog:
What Happened. By Hillary Clinton.
The tl;dr take:
1. This won’t change your mind about Hillary Clinton. If you despised her before, you’ll feel the same way after the book. If you loved her before, you’ll still love her. If you thought “ok, decent policy wonk but not really charismatic”, well, you’ll leave this book with the same opinion.
2. I was disappointed: I expected it to be more of “I should have opened X field offices in Pennsylvania and spent Y in ads in Wisconsin” and perhaps a bit more introspection. There was some introspection, but it was scattered throughout. On the other hand, I did learn that what sort of breakfast egg dishes she likes, that she likes an occasional hamburger, that she likes kids, that Justice Ginsberg does planks twice a week and yes, that she (Hillary Clinton) wears yoga pants. Seriously (page 19 for the yoga pants mention)
3. I’d say that about 2/3 of the book is worth reading. The best section is the one called Frustration, which features the 5 chapters Country Roads, Those Damn Emails, “Trolls, Bots, Fake News and Real Russians”, Election Night, Why. I was expecting most of the book to be like this section. It did give a nice summary of the issues of e-mails, Russian meddling, how the press handled things and some of the prevailing headwinds. The chapter “Sweating the Details” in the section “Sisterhood” is good too. And she flat out admitted that much of the country simply does not like her.
4. I’d say that she is finished running for elective office; she really did burn some bridges and say a few things sans a politician’s filter. Here is a beauty: (page 276; she is describing people in Appalachia)
But anger and resentment do run deep. As Appalachian natives such as author J. D. Vance have pointed out, a culture of grievance, victimhood, and scapegoating has taken root as traditional values of self-reliance and hard work have withered. There’s a tendency toward seeing every problem as someone else’s fault, whether it’s Obama, liberal elites in the big cities,
undocumented immigrants taking jobs, minorities soaking up government assistance–or me.
5. And yes, about the “basket of deplorables” remark: she admits that it was a political mistake to make that statement, but she stands by the actual logic of the statement (about half of the Trump supporters fall into that category). Actually, I do too, but it is an interesting statement to make..at least from a politician not named “Trump”.
6. Oh yes, she really doesn’t like Trump. She does take shots at Sanders, Comey, the press, etc. But she really doesn’t like Trump.
7. Above all, this book is, without apology, aimed mostly at women; I’d say at educated, upper middle class women.
More detail: the book is not a linear time progression. It starts out describing the inauguration and her decision to attend (later to go home and put on a fleece top and yoga pants). Chronologically, it skips around quite a bit.
Much of the early part of the book is a bit like NBC’s Olympic coverage: human interest stuff (what she eats, when she wakes up, day to day stuff…kids, grand kids, relations between her staff, etc.).
She does get onto issues, including Black Lives Matter, Mothers of the Movement (black victims of gun violence), Police (yes, she talks about the massacre of police officers), climate change, and the lead in the Flint water supply (and wonders if advocating for poor blacks in Flint cost her votes in Michigan). She also talks about NATO and some of the complexities of foreign policy.
She does have some beefs though:
1. Press coverage. They seemed to be fixated on her e-mail problems (way overblown) and that ate up much of her press coverage; it hurt her ability to talk about issues. It also blotted out coverage about other things, such as he bus tour. She also pointed out that Trump appeared to send the press a “new rabbit to chase” almost daily; that appeared to keep the press from drilling down on his honest to goodness issues.
2. Russian interference: she goes into this in detail; the main issue is not only did they hack into the DNC and into her Podesta’s e-mails, but they also strategically planted fake news and gamed the social media and search engine algorithms so that these stories appeared on the feeds of likely undecided voters living in battleground states.
3. Bernie Sanders: she took shots at his unrealistic “we could have this or that” claims and ridiculed the idea that if we could somehow just get the PACs out of business, his proposals would be popular NATIONWIDE; he seemed to disregard regional differences in attitudes. She resented the implication that she was somehow crooked.
4. She flat out admit that the history of “Clinton scandals” (mostly untrue) dogged her and made people ready to believe new “non-scandals” about her. And on page 399
Moreover I have come to terms with the fact that a lot of people–millions and millions of people, decided they just didn’t like me.
.
5. Introspection: she said that she should have not used the line “we are going to put a lot of coal miners out of work” even though it was quoted out of context.
Here are her full remarks, with the most relevant parts in bold:
Look, we have serious economic problems in many parts of our country. And Roland is absolutely right. Instead of dividing people the way Donald Trump does, let’s reunite around policies that will bring jobs and opportunities to all these underserved poor communities.
So for example, I’m the only candidate which has a policy about how to bring economic opportunity using clean renewable energy as the key into coal country. Because we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business, right?
And we’re going to make it clear that we don’t want to forget those people. Those people labored in those mines for generations, losing their health, often losing their lives to turn on our lights and power our factories.
Now we’ve got to move away from coal and all the other fossil fuels, but I don’t want to move away from the people who did the best they could to produce the energy that we relied on.
So whether it’s coal country or Indian country or poor urban areas, there is a lot of poverty in America. We have gone backwards. We were moving in the right direction. In the ’90s, more people were lifted out of poverty than any time in recent history.
Because of the terrible economic policies of the Bush administration, President Obama was left with the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and people fell back into poverty because they lost jobs, they lost homes, they lost opportunities, and hope.
So I am passionate about this, which is why I have put forward specific plans about how we incentivize more jobs, more investment in poor communities, and put people to work.
She did discuss her “basket of deplorables” remark on page 413 and noted that she wasn’t talking about all Trump supporters but “about half of them”. She then goes on to provide data (from polls) regarding the attitudes of Trump supporters to back up her claim of accuracy!
She does not pull punches about those who overlooked some of Trump’s ugly statements either.
Getting back to introspection: she acknowledges that perhaps, when listening to angry voters, she jumped straight to proposed solutions instead of listening to the venting to assure the voter that she “got” and “felt” the depth of their anger and pain …first.
6. Resentments: I’ve discussed her stated, well resentments about some of Trump’s supporters. She also took shots at “my way or the highway” activists, shots at those who attempted to “disrupt” her rallies (she made a point to put the word in italics (page 203). About the woman’s marches: she approved of them but wondered where that passion was during the election itself and why some did not vote. She resented Sander’s bumper sticker depth of policy, the press, the timing of the Comey letter (which probably DID cost her the election), the Electoral College and…
7. Being a woman: I’d say that the underlying thread of her book is about being a female and the disadvantages that brings from sexism (e. g. her being a female is one reason to be against her), misogyny (on page 114-115 she explains the difference between the two). She complains about the extra time a woman (in the public eye) has to spend on make up. And yes, she acknowledges that she lost the white women’s vote and especially the non-college educated white woman’s vote.
8. Yes, she discusses race and thinks that she did suffer some backlash from those who resented having a black president for 8 years.
9. She did discuss campaign strategy just a bit and pushed back on the narrative that she didn’t campaign enough in the former “blue wall” rust belt states.
Clearly, there is much more in the book than what I said, but hopefully, you’ll get a sense of whether you want to read it or not.
Update: here is a fact check of her book (it comes out pretty well) She also mentions a Facebook meme that I not only saw but passed around (Bernie and the pony) and a Facebook group that I belonged to (Pantsuit Nation).
Shattered by Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes.
Like many, I thought that Hillary Clinton would win but was aware that she was not in as strong of a position as Obama was in during the 2012 campaign.
Still, I thought that the “worst case” was 272-266 Clinton
And I misread the coalition that Trump brought aboard in key states.
So, what went wrong? Oh I know what went wrong with the models that overstated Clinton’s probability of winning; it was the statistical idea of independence and the width of the confidence intervals.
But what about with the election and campaign itself? The book Shattered examines that question. Yes, the book makes it clear that the Comey letter, Russian meddling and other forces played a factor; for example, in some key areas of key states, she did just as well as Obama did with the female vote but did much worse with the male vote. This book does NOT discount these factors.
But it does talk about how dysfunctional the campaign was (the goal was often to maintain access to HRC rather than to get her elected…loyalty was rewarded, sometimes at the expense of competence..and there was too much focus on analytics and “getting one’s people to the polls as opposed to trying to win at least a few votes over”.
Yes, I know; many times there are people that you are wasting your time with. But there is value in persuasion; sometimes losing red counties 65-35 instead of 75-25 can help you carry the state.
And, they painted a portrait of a candidate who, while knowing every white paper on the issues, just could not connect with voters outside of a narrow circle. And it wasn’t as if HRC was good with public introspection; she appeared to place little blame on herself, at least at that time. She does some of this in her own book, which came out later.
I found that the book was a good complement to Clinton’s own book What Happened.
Oh yes, if you Loooooove Hillary you’ll think that this book is a “hit job”. This book will be dismissed by Clinton cultists. If you hate her, you’ll find a lot you like in the book, though the book DOES admit that other factors played a big role; any one of these could have tipped the scales in such a close election.
But, realistically, I think that the book shows that attempted to run a 2012 style campaign against a very unconventional opponent with the country being in an unconventional mood.
And yes, while Obama was a ground breaking candidate, he was also a “purple unicorn” with extreme intelligence, charisma and political skill. Clinton had only the ‘intelligence” part; being a woman didn’t seem to help her a higher percentage of the female vote and she was hurt with the male vote. Though one might exclaim “sexism”, and I have no doubt that it was a factor, I wonder if there was a difference: Obama got to where he was under his own steam. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton got to where she was because of Bill; had she never married him, she might have well been some successful lawyer, professor or policy expert.
And while her being saddled to Bill got her into the arena, it may well have harmed her during this particular election itself.
Now of course, every campaign makes mistakes and has some dysfunction; after all, Trump did horribly during the debates and had all sorts of gaffes and missteps ..many which might have sunk him in a different election. But he had enough showmanship (“political campaign skill”) to overcome those missteps….at least during THIS election.
Kind of tired, but am learning stuff. My question: how much balance to give between examples and theory? To learn time series, you really need both.
Workout notes: weights only: pull ups (5 sets of 10, one of 5), incline: 10 x 135, decline: 7 x 175, military: 7 x 50 standing, 15 x 50 seated (got it; right arm still an issue though), 10 x 40 standing, rows: 3 sets of 10 x 50, 10 x 110 machine: 6 x 30, 6 x 50 goblet squats, leg presses (10), plank, headstand, etc. Knee bends: 4 lb. medicine ball is almost comfortable; lots of progress. Weight: 185.5.
Politics: this is an interesting article about Pete Buttigeig and how he is covered. He is an interesting guy; I’d like for him to have had either Congressional or gubernatorial service first though.
Biden is supposed to enter tomorrow. Sigh…I do want new blood but if this is what it takes to beat Trump…
For at least the 3’rd year in a row, the visiting team won each game in the Illinois vs. Bradley baseball series.
Last night, Illinois defeated Bradley 4-2 in a very entertaining college baseball game that featured a bit of everything. Of course, from my point of view, it was heartbreaking as BU had its chances to win..and even out hit the Illini 7-4 in the first 9 innings.
The first 8 innings were a pitcher’s duel that had BU tying the game in the bottom of the 7’th with a solo home run. The action featured a “Sports Center Highlight” worthy play on a ground out by the Bradley shortstop and an excellent play by the Illinois pitcher which prevented BU from scoring with 2 out (hard grounder was stopped and the runner thrown out).
Then in the 9’th, Illinois got a towering home run to right field to lead 2-1. BU got an infield hit that hit the ground and bounced up almost as high as a pop up. A wild pitch moved the runner to second and two long fly balls moved the runner to 3’rd and then home.
But in the 10’th, the Illini bats woke up for a couple of singles with 2 outs (nice left fielder to 3’rd throw out though) to lead 4-2, and that is how it ended.
Though I am sorry Bradley didn’t win, it was a fun game..and nice to see the players on other teams there to support them.
Yep, she is a policy heavyweight; knows her stuff inside and out. But we aren’t going to elect someone who comes across as boring. And blaming the voters doesn’t work. Wagging the finger never works.
Life of an old goat 