Toward Thanksgiving

Today: no NSAIDS…felt the burn at the end; some tingles during. I was annoyed by the 14:20 mile but I let my mind wander…crisp but very breezy.

I was slightly overdressed.

Comment about Trump Trump’s attempt to break the rules and get himself declared the winner is downright embarrassing…and even worse is that so many Republicans are ok with it, especially Republicans in political leadership positions. I am not sure whether they actually approve OR if they just don’t want political pressure from Trump’s loony base.

But..THIS is why rule books are as thick as they are; SOMEONE will always try to game the system. It is a shame that so many in the US thought that it was a good idea to vote for someone like that.

17 November walk and

I might have more to say later; let’s just say that while I am glad that Trump lost the election; Congress will be a zoo.

Well, the walk itself; just under 15 minutes per mile on a perfect day. Ok..not that bad but hardly swift. No wind; lots of run; mild glute pain and some NSAIDS.

When I got back I saw some cars being towed; I wonder what the story was..could be many things. Most of them: not good.

And yes; we are back at level 3 due to increased COVID cases and yes, dummies are still planning to have family Thanksgiving get togethers…superspreader event.

Ugh…it is back, sort of

Blustery winds and chilly; and last night I had a few hamstring cramps from deadlifts..I think.

So, it was a rough one; I stretched but the glue/piriformis bothered me and I stopped at 2.4 miles to stretch and take some naproxen.

that seemed to help and I was able to get just over 8 more, albeit at a very slow pace. The wind was a factor.

During my stretch stop, I saw a squirrel with a mouth full of…leaves?

Be my guest.

Stalled

This was one of my slower Thursday walks, and at the end, the glute pain was back.

But it was better than zip.

I wonder if there is a weight gain issue or if stepping up Wednesday deadlifting might be a contributing factor.
A decent (but too hard) finishing mile kept me from the shame of a 14 minute pace.

September 17 was the last time I had a slower Thursday walk.

About my gut..

I feel a bit bloated; though my walk was not that bad and pull ups are ok?

I stopped before the glute got painful.

Election: not much has changed from this morning, though Biden’s lead in Nevada grows and Trump’s lead in Georgia is almost totally gone, and Biden is closing fast in Pennsylvania;

From this morning:

The situation, as I see it:
Nevada: 6 EV. Biden’s lead is very tight but the ballot to be counted is “projected” to be very blue. But projected to be is enough to make a call. I feel confident in this one.

Arizona: 11 EV Fox, Wall Street Journal and AP have called this for Biden and are standing by their call. Yes, there is more vote to be counted and there is a small probability that it might be Trumpy enough to go red..but unlikely as the vote is from several parts of the state (as opposed to being mostly from very red parts). I feel good about this one too, as Fox and WSJ aren’t exactly bastions of liberalism.

1. I think that the call was premature, though Biden is “likely” to win the state; calls should be 99.9 percent sure.

2. Trump protesters are outside stations saying “count the vote” while…well, they are trying to count the vote??

North Carolina: 15 EV Trump leads and though there is enough vote left to be counted that could allow Biden to catch up, it is highly doubtful. I see this one as Trump.

Georgia 16 EV : know more today; it is POSSIBLE that there is enough urban vote to be counted that will give Biden this state. Trump’s lead is now quite small and it is eroding quickly. But will enough of it erode? Call it a “toss up.”

Pennsylvania 20 EV: Trump’s lead (election day voting) is eroding very quickly as the early vote is being counted; I’ll be very surprised if Biden doesn’t win by 1-2 points. Feel great about this.

By Friday, I’d expect tht Biden will pick up 37 EV to put him over the top, and possibly 53 to put him over 300

BTW, Trump is filing frivolous lawsuits and his supporters are making stuff up (e. g. more votes than registered voters in Wisconsin…patently false though Wisconsin, like Illinois, allows for same day registration)

I think that Nevada can be safely called to put Joe and 260. Arizona will likely hold as Trump didn’t gain as much ground as he needed in the Trumpy areas:

Georgia: will probably be a recount state but that won’t help Trump. So, based on the math, I see this:

But, sure, Georgia is a toss up and it might be 289 EV for Biden.

Projections:

The above is from here: I’ve used 538, Electoral Vote (where this was from and they had Biden at 350) and I used e-proj (election projection) as my conservative “reality check” and, well, they did reasonably well.
Note: he was pretty wrong on his comments on Minnesota but while his verbiage is full of…well…nothing good, his statistical analysis was pretty impressive.

Update: Predictit has the following map as of right now, which I agree with:

I think Arizona is better than 74 but, well…we shall see. Note Georgia!

Argh!

Glute pain: mild but enough to limit me to 5 miles at a relatively easy pace.

Election: well, this does look like it will be as close as people had feared; it appears as if Trump’s Texas/Southeast Firewall has held, as has Ohio.

Pennsylvania is not out of the question though and Arizona doesn’t look that bad.

As I go to sleep: it looks like this to me. We shall see.

Time for talk is over…

Ok, the walk home was simply lovely.

It sure went by quickly..then again that primary seems like a decade ago.
I started out by backing Amy Klobuchar…but was happy that Joe Biden prevailed over Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. I really think with those other two, we’d be heading toward defeat.

But, IMHO, we aren’t; we are winning.

So my 90 percent CI looks like this:

I honestly don’t see Trump winning Pennsylvania; the reputable polls show him winning by 4-7 points.

The upper end of my 90 CI looks like this:

Remember Biden is as close to Trump in Montana as Trump is to Biden in Pennsylvania …and Trump isn’t campaigning in Montana. Sure…Clinton in 1992 was the last D to win. But Biden is the type of Democrat that can.

My middle of the CI looks like this:

I can’t call Ohio as Biden has come on strong recently (upward trend) but Trump has lead for much of the election. NC and Georgia are downright close ..as is Arizona.
Texas : maybe this is emotion talking, but Texas new voting has been through the roof and late polls give Biden a slight edge; those a few days ago give Trump a small edge. The Texas Republicans are acting as if they desperate though. So I honestly can’t call this state. Will the cities override the countryside?

My calls are not crazy:

Those are 90 EV I cannot call; I see the candidates splitting these (roughly) which puts Biden at 350-360 EV, and I’d say a 7-11 point win in the popular vote. Say, 53-44?

Weight workout I did push things on my butt on Sunday and it hurt just a bit today.

pull ups: ok; singles, 5’s ..lots of them, 55 reps
bench press: 10 x 132, then 3 sets of 5 x 165 (pause)
trap bar squats: 10 x 134 neutral, then deficit: 10 x 134, 10 x 155, 10 x 166
seated shoulder: sets of 9, 10, 10 with 90 (barbell)
2 sets of dumbbell unsuppored with 36 (sets of 10)
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 134 trap bar.
push ups: 2 sets of 30
headstand

Best longer walk in a while

Despite the 15’s in the middle, the splits were relatively even. And as you can tell, I did lots of tight loops sans break. Why? It was a sunny day but very windy, and the neighborhood houses gave some wind protection.

Glute: somewhat sore at times but not the pain fest it sometimes was. And while this was by no means a fast walk, it was the fastest 10+ I’ve had in months and not that bad for the day after doing a 20 year best in a dead lift (ok, high handles).

This was the only stop I took and it was early.

Initially I thought about only doing 5..then “ok, make it 6”..then “ok, 8 is decent if I can break 2 hours” then…”why not 10?”

Getting nervous

I know, I know.

Walking:

Yes, 13:18 was my fastest average walking pace of the year, but it *felt* slow; slower than previous Thursday walks. But it wasn’t.

Yes, I was bundled a bit…and I gave the cars a good shot at me. Glute pain: minimal; it is not healed up yet. Not totally. But not stabbing. I just have to keep at the PT stuff.

Otherwise: I am sort of antsy. I did see a good math talk about voting (via zoom) and had a decent, but not well attended couple of class sessions.

I question whether or not I am doing the right things in class. Am I grading tough enough..too easy..or too harsh? Is my feedback the right amount, or too little? Am I doing the right things in this environment?

It is almost as if I am first year all over again.

And there is the election:

I think this gets is right though I might be tempted to put Pennsylvania in the “toss up” camp; I’d call it “sort of lean Biden.” Still, to win, Trump has to come from behind in Pennsylvania AND basically sweep the toss ups.

A Trump win looks like this:

I don’t see it…but…

2004 vs 2008

he loss that gave me the most pain:

Some might say that the 2016 Trump win was the most painful. I’ll discuss that one later. But it really wasn’t the one where I felt the most anguish.

That one was the 2004 election where George Bush held off a serious challenge from John Kerry.

When Kerry finally conceded the loss in Ohio, I called Barbara up and my voice cracked..I was almost in tears. I had never felt so low over politics.

The reason: this was the first time I put my heart and soul into helping out a campaign; I just KNEW that the work I put in would help make a difference.

I learned a harsh lesson, but a lesson that served me well later.

The season: I didn’t really get that involved in the primary process; this was the “Dean Scream” primary. Kerry went on to clinch the nomination and at that time, I decided to get involved.

I also got involved in a State House election where the now disgraced Aaron Schock got his start by defeating a Democratic incumbent (in the seat that Booth-Gordon now holds.

I took some trips to campaign for Kerry in Davenport, Iowa, once with a friend. I donated. I made “Kerry calls” to supporters in swing states who had signed up to be contacted by the campaign. And I followed the election closely.

I really though that Kerry had a chance.
I drove home from Iowa on Tuesday; I had spent the day on a “lazy Democrat” sweep to get Democrats to the polls. Before that, I had one a literature “please vote” sweep in Peoria.

And I drove home…listened to the results…then got home and followed the all important vote totals in Ohio…and saw that the Bush lead was not shrinking.

I went to bed; woke up to see Ohio had NOT been declared as yet…and then heard…..devestating.

I literally ached. I was mournful, hurt and dejected.

But…eventually after time had passed:

1. I realized I had come in on the tail end of things. The time to get involved was NOW so I started to get involved in local politics and I did things..and helped someone win a city council seat.

2. I realized that the Kerry organization was a disaster. The website was poorly organized.
When I went somewhere to campaign, it was disarray; they weren’t ready for us and had to scramble to find the best place for us.

3. When I made Kerry calls, frequently, I was told that I was the FIRST person to each out to them…IN MONTHS. There were competing events within a mile or 2 of each other..etc.

4. And most of what I did was solo.

Fast forward to 2008:
1. Obama: got aboard early.
2. When I went to a meeting and volunteered to do something, I got follow up “did you do that?”
3. When I went to campaign I was encouraged to take friends; they even made suggestions (Lynn Dempsey and I went a few times, sometimes with a friend)
4. Before I took a trip, I had an assigned job..got a call the night before asking if we had everything we needed.

It was a night and day difference.

And so, on election day 2008..I drove home from campaigning..with friends.

Upshot:

In 2004, on election night, I mourned alone.
in 2008, I celebrated…with friends.

That was a big lesson.

I’ll write about 2016 in a day or two.

22 October

I wasn’t going to do much, and it was dark and foggy. But I noticed my first mile was under 14 minutes (walking) so I kept going. Pace was very similar to last week, and given it was wet, I am ok with it.
I didn’t have any sub 13 min miles though, and I did feel a few tingles.