Why I think the Democrats are in deep trouble…

Yes, I know, the President’s party usually loses seats in the first midterm, but often that is compensating for the President’s “coattails” in the previous election.

But in 2020: there weren’t really any of those; Biden outperformed down ticket Democrats, probably because Trump was so unpopular.

The situation looks grim (per FiveThirtyEight)

Some are claiming that the abortion issue will help us. I am deeply skeptical.

Reason: where abortion rights have popular support, those rights are protected by state laws. Where abortion rights are not protected by state law, well, that isn’t a winning issue in such places. That is my reasoning. I could be wrong.

Then I think about how Democrats speak to the public.
This is how I think it SHOULD be done:

Wow pic.twitter.com/0EabEDaau6

— Acyn (@Acyn) October 29, 2022

Notice what he does:

1. He makes Social Security PERSONAL; it affects YOU immediately, either directly or indirectly (do you want gramps moving in with you?)
2. He stays away from identity politics: race, sex, gender identity are NOT mentioned. None of this “and this especially affects demographic X” that so many Democrats like to say.
3. He talks about Social Security as an *earned* benefit. People LIKE to earn things.

It appears to me that Democrats are likely to say “feel sorry for X” and you should sacrifice for their welfare.

When politicians say "we are going to tackle problem X which disproportionately affects group Y", do people NOT in group Y hear this to mean that problem X doesn't affect them or that the government wouldn't do anything if it did?

— Keith Humphreys (@KeithNHumphreys) November 6, 2022

I sure hope my pessimism is unwarranted.