Answering “how can so many vote for a horrible man like Trump” question

Yes, i know, the election is not called yet, but Biden has Nevada wrapped up, mostly likely to win Arizona and is about to overtake Trump in Pennsylvania, and possibly Georgia.

Still it appears that Trump has close to 70 million votes, and will likely, if he hasn’t already, surpass the number of votes Barack Obama got in 2008..though, of course, our country has grown in population since then.

So, yes, a whole lot of people found Trump either a suitable choice, or the best available choice.

This for a president who has oversaw one of the worst COVID 19 response in the developed world. (evidently Belgium and Spain were worse, and the UK was just as bad)

He is someone who lies and routinely insults private citizens, including US troops.

He is in charge and the country is in disarray.

And one of his signature events was a COVID spreading event.

And yet, he kept the election close; much closer than Jimmy Carter or George H. W. Bush did in their losing reelection efforts. Ok..they ran against “generational caliber” politicians and that is part of it…

So, how could such a vile and reprehensible man do as well as he did?

Now, I won’t deny that many of his supporters really are “deplorable”; that is clear. But 70 million?

Let’s do a thought experiment.

Suppose you had a type of cancer that was almost always fatal if left untreated. An operation could help and the available surgeons had success rates of:
60, 58, 62, 58, and 90 percent.

Which one do you choose?

Now suppose that 90 percent surgeon was crude; he made racist and misogynistic posts and was MAGA all the way.

Does that change your choice?

And that is how many of them see it.
Many of these get their news from Fox and other right wing outlets, like, say, NewsMax. They see cherry picked stories about the economy (focusing only on the “good quarters”), the stock market (yes, lots of voters have stock based retirement accounts), foreign affairs (every good development they give Trump credit for), etc.

They get a steady diet of stories like this:

:”With huge help from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Trump has put two justices on the Supreme Court, 53 judges on the federal courts of appeals144 and counting on the District courts, and more than 20 on the specialty courts. The Constitution has been buttressed.

Trump’s tax cuts, along with the massive deregulation he orchestrated, led to 3.5 percent unemployment until the regime in Beijing acted with criminal recklessness toward a virus that has devastated the world. Economic recovery depends on those rule rollbacks, and not just grotesque overreaches such as the Clean Power Plan and “Waters of the United States” rule, but on hundreds of other intrusions into the private businesses and onto the private property of Americans.

Trump took a military operating in President Barack Obama’s last years at about $600 billion and moved that budget by his third year to $738 billion, with more in the budget coming soon. The Navy necessary to meet China on the high seas, all 355 ships of it, is being planned and built.

Trump tore up the so-called Iran nuclear deal, which was a tower of absurd hopes built on a policy of appeasement and a foundation of hostility to Israel.

Trump moved the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and blessed Israel’s necessary annexation of the Golan Heights. His peace plan is the closest to reality of any since Oslo.”

And so, this is what they see. And in contrast to that, they see the Democrats who THEY see as “socialist”, or anti-free enterprise. They see Democrats who want to defund the police!

Democrats enable crime! Democrats enable underachievement (at times, we do..sadly), devalue hard work and …are against God! (their God, so our critics say).

And Democrats are pushy about trying to force their social norms on everyone else; here is one example:

And, of course, Democrats believe that one can change their “gender” by saying what they are and expect you to memorize dozens of pronouns because THEY say so.

So, to them, WE are the horrible (or possibly merely naive and delusional) human beings that want to destroy what is left of the United States, and if it takes voting for a vulgar, crude man…hey no one remembers Rambo for this manners.

Anyway, that is how I see it.

About my gut..

I feel a bit bloated; though my walk was not that bad and pull ups are ok?

I stopped before the glute got painful.

Election: not much has changed from this morning, though Biden’s lead in Nevada grows and Trump’s lead in Georgia is almost totally gone, and Biden is closing fast in Pennsylvania;

From this morning:

The situation, as I see it:
Nevada: 6 EV. Biden’s lead is very tight but the ballot to be counted is “projected” to be very blue. But projected to be is enough to make a call. I feel confident in this one.

Arizona: 11 EV Fox, Wall Street Journal and AP have called this for Biden and are standing by their call. Yes, there is more vote to be counted and there is a small probability that it might be Trumpy enough to go red..but unlikely as the vote is from several parts of the state (as opposed to being mostly from very red parts). I feel good about this one too, as Fox and WSJ aren’t exactly bastions of liberalism.

1. I think that the call was premature, though Biden is “likely” to win the state; calls should be 99.9 percent sure.

2. Trump protesters are outside stations saying “count the vote” while…well, they are trying to count the vote??

North Carolina: 15 EV Trump leads and though there is enough vote left to be counted that could allow Biden to catch up, it is highly doubtful. I see this one as Trump.

Georgia 16 EV : know more today; it is POSSIBLE that there is enough urban vote to be counted that will give Biden this state. Trump’s lead is now quite small and it is eroding quickly. But will enough of it erode? Call it a “toss up.”

Pennsylvania 20 EV: Trump’s lead (election day voting) is eroding very quickly as the early vote is being counted; I’ll be very surprised if Biden doesn’t win by 1-2 points. Feel great about this.

By Friday, I’d expect tht Biden will pick up 37 EV to put him over the top, and possibly 53 to put him over 300

BTW, Trump is filing frivolous lawsuits and his supporters are making stuff up (e. g. more votes than registered voters in Wisconsin…patently false though Wisconsin, like Illinois, allows for same day registration)

I think that Nevada can be safely called to put Joe and 260. Arizona will likely hold as Trump didn’t gain as much ground as he needed in the Trumpy areas:

Georgia: will probably be a recount state but that won’t help Trump. So, based on the math, I see this:

But, sure, Georgia is a toss up and it might be 289 EV for Biden.

Projections:

The above is from here: I’ve used 538, Electoral Vote (where this was from and they had Biden at 350) and I used e-proj (election projection) as my conservative “reality check” and, well, they did reasonably well.
Note: he was pretty wrong on his comments on Minnesota but while his verbiage is full of…well…nothing good, his statistical analysis was pretty impressive.

Update: Predictit has the following map as of right now, which I agree with:

I think Arizona is better than 74 but, well…we shall see. Note Georgia!