Ok, the walk home was simply lovely.
It sure went by quickly..then again that primary seems like a decade ago.
I started out by backing Amy Klobuchar…but was happy that Joe Biden prevailed over Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders. I really think with those other two, we’d be heading toward defeat.
But, IMHO, we aren’t; we are winning.
So my 90 percent CI looks like this:
I honestly don’t see Trump winning Pennsylvania; the reputable polls show him winning by 4-7 points.
The upper end of my 90 CI looks like this:
Remember Biden is as close to Trump in Montana as Trump is to Biden in Pennsylvania …and Trump isn’t campaigning in Montana. Sure…Clinton in 1992 was the last D to win. But Biden is the type of Democrat that can.
My middle of the CI looks like this:
I can’t call Ohio as Biden has come on strong recently (upward trend) but Trump has lead for much of the election. NC and Georgia are downright close ..as is Arizona.
Texas : maybe this is emotion talking, but Texas new voting has been through the roof and late polls give Biden a slight edge; those a few days ago give Trump a small edge. The Texas Republicans are acting as if they desperate though. So I honestly can’t call this state. Will the cities override the countryside?
My calls are not crazy:
Those are 90 EV I cannot call; I see the candidates splitting these (roughly) which puts Biden at 350-360 EV, and I’d say a 7-11 point win in the popular vote. Say, 53-44?
Weight workout I did push things on my butt on Sunday and it hurt just a bit today.
pull ups: ok; singles, 5’s ..lots of them, 55 reps
bench press: 10 x 132, then 3 sets of 5 x 165 (pause)
trap bar squats: 10 x 134 neutral, then deficit: 10 x 134, 10 x 155, 10 x 166
seated shoulder: sets of 9, 10, 10 with 90 (barbell)
2 sets of dumbbell unsuppored with 36 (sets of 10)
rows: 3 sets of 10 x 134 trap bar.
push ups: 2 sets of 30