Via Electoral Vote:
The dark blue is where Biden has a lead of 10 or more points (over several recent polls). The light blue: the leads are: 6 points in Pennsylvania, 8 in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Nevada.
The dark blues are 233 EV worth and the light blues are 46 more EV for 279 EVs.
Bottom line: Trump has to win Ohio (rated even), win every blue outline state, and hold his red outline states AND pick off one light blue state ..a very tall order.
It can be done (Fivethirtyeight gives him a 10 percent chance).
Now IF the polls are as off as they were in 2016 (in Trump’s favor) this is how it looks:
(via The Upshot (New York Times)
So even with that sort of shift, Biden wins.
But we shall see: the only win is a win.
My 2016: (that week, 4 years ago)
TL;DR election memories: 2016
Yes, Biden’s chances appear to be around 90 percent. And I could go on and on about how this is not 2016 (and statistically, it isn’t..not even close) but ..
I’d be lying to say that I wasn’t nervous, because I am. Yes, Trump could *legitimately* win the Electoral College. But that isn’t what this post is about.
In 2016 I followed and when I made my own map, I came up with a 90 percent “confidence interval” map which had HRC getting about 320 EV. But my first evolution showed…a Trump victory in the lower tail (278) so..what should have been my better judgement (“no, that can’t be right”) I joggered it a bit to get that to 268 …just less than what he needed.
BUT…in my statistics class we were studying independent/dependent random variables and I used election models as an example.
I explained the models that gave Trump no chance assumed that polling errors were independent random variables and those that gave Trump about a 30 percent chance assumed that they were correlated random variables.
I went on to say “either candidate could win; Clinton is the favorite but a very modest one..on the order of being a field goal favorite in football.” If Trump won, it would be a modest upset at best..much more likely than the Cubs rally to win the WS.
I couldn’t believe what cane out of my mouth, but I had my professor’s hat on and was speaking professionally.
I didn’t watch the returns but instead watched a MAC game (Western Michigan vs, Toledo, I think) I did have my laptop open to the Upshot Needle which gave the probability of who would win..at first 50+ for Clinton..then I watched the needle slowly but steadily move toward Trump as the votes came in.
B came home (worked the polls) and went to bed as she had been up since 3 am. She did NOT see the tide turn.
But…turn it did …and my IM started to blow up.
So I spent most of the evening consoling my 3 friends …and when Wisconsin was called, I knew it was over.
So I went up to bed.
Barbara sleepily opened one eye and said “how did it go?”
I replied “you don’t want to know.”
Welp…wide awake..and I told her that Trump had won;
Afterward, I was fuming, upset at Clinton’s unforced campaign errors, the Bernie or bust bros and the ridiculous woke left which I think hurt us. I felt it was if our side had turned the ball over 6 times and tried to campaign as if our country was a university campus.
And so here we are….and believe me, though my head tells me that Biden will win, I’ve got that Illini fan attitude that we will find a way to screw it up and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. That’s what Democrats not named Bill or Barack do.