22 October

I wasn’t going to do much, and it was dark and foggy. But I noticed my first mile was under 14 minutes (walking) so I kept going. Pace was very similar to last week, and given it was wet, I am ok with it.
I didn’t have any sub 13 min miles though, and I did feel a few tingles.

Vintage Obama

First: the weight workout:
usual warm up, then pull ups: sets of singles, doubles, 3’s and 5’s..enough got get to 55 reps.
shoulder presses: dumbbell: 10 x 36, then 2 sets of 10 x 40 seated, unsupported.
shoulder presses: barbell, with support: 8, 7, 7 with 90 (seated)
trap bar rows: 5 sets of 10 x 134
bench press: 10 x 143, pause.
trap bar deadlift (deficit) 10 x 184, 10 x 204 (felt really good)

Election: Trump’s head is going to explode. This took 37 minutes..inspired me to give money. I missed the letter writing deadline.

You can see the 37 minutes of the Obama speech here.



Darn it…pain is back..came back at about mile 4 (at which point I went downhill). I have slacked a bit on my stretching; can’t do that.
First 3 were flat and I hit mile 4 on my way down; I did push the uphill coming out of Bradley Park. And I did stretch at 4.5 or so.

My map, as I see it. I see about 135 EV that could conceivably go either way.
So, anywhere between 278-260 Biden to 413-125 Biden.

What I think will happen based on what I’ve seen:

I think the Senate races in Georgia and North Carolina help Biden. In any rate, I think Biden will get Florida and then 2 of 3 between Ohio, Georgia and North Carolina..and possibly pull a surprise upset somewhere (Indiana? Montana? Texas?)

19 October

14 days…

I went a bit less on the arm up:

pull ups: total of 55 reps; had one set of 10, a few of 5 and some doubles/singles

Bench press: 10 x 132, then 5 sets of 3 x 171, all with pauses

Trap bar squats: 10 x 134 regular, then deficit: 10 x 134, 10 x 154, 10 x 164
shoulder: seated dumbbell, 3 sets of 10 x 32, 1 set of 8 x 90 barbell
rows: 4 sets of 10 x 134 trap bar
push ups: 30, 20, 15

That’s it; went ok; kind of short on sleep.

15 days

Ok, this walk was less than stellar. It featured an extra loop around the Riverplex to get the extra mile. And frankly, it was bad, though I started to feel better at around mile 6. I have to reexamine what I eat prior to walking?

Attitude was bad until the end, then again, my final pace wasn’t exactly stellar. I did face some tough headwinds from miles 2 to 6.

I did have some early glute tingles.

Afterward: visit with Tracy (social distance: of course)

My hips are a bit sore from the heavier repetition deadlifts with “high handles.”

Election: playing a bit with the data from Electoral Vote:

Biden certainly has the edge. But my 95 percent confidence interval includes a Trump victory: (giving Trump the states where Biden’s lead is 8 points or less)

It also included a Biden blowout:

And here is what I think will happen, maybe plus/minus a couple of states, either way:

Iowa is iffy. Georgia is iffy. But then again, so is Ohio and Texas for Trump. And…well, an Eastern Seaboard sweep is not out of the question .

Adding high handle trap bar deadlifts

No, this wasn’t a workout for the record books but:

Deficit (low handle, stood on 10 kg plates): 10 x 134, 10 x 184, 5 x 224

High handle: 5 x 254, 5 x 264 (fairly easy)

Low handle, neutral: 5 x 244

Then a 5 mile walk at 14:37 per, winding around campus.

The knee brace shot is my teasing a friend.


Aside from an outlier poll in Michigan, (Trump +1..other is Biden + 11) I don’t see much hope for Trump here. (Real Clear)

Electoral Vote.

For those thinking about 2016 (and yes, we are still just over 2 weeks away..time for movement but..)

By Electoral vote: Biden leads by 5+ points in states worth 290 EV. Not 2+, 5+.

Biden has 356 EV worth of states where he leads by 2+. HUGE difference.

Trying to withdraw what one didn’t deposit

First: weight workout; it was a bit chilly outside and my “gripper” gloves put my hands at a different angle for pull ups.

55 total; mostly sets of 5 (yes, usual rotator cuff, etc.)

bench press: 10 x 132, 4 sets of 4 x 165 with pauses (one rep was a light touch; all other reps were full pauses)
seated dumbbell shoulder: 10 x 22, 30, 32 (no support)

seated barbell shoulder press: 10 x 88, 6 x 92
standing trap bar rows: 4 sets of 10 x 134

push ups: 30, 20, 15 (went ok)


Topic: I was reading all of the “kids need to be face to face in the classroom” nonsense out there.
1. Parents are NOT responsible; they HAVE knowingly sent kids infected with COVID to the classrooms.
2. Teachers and staff have died from it. But the teachers and staff rarely come into the conversation: “it is about THE KIDS.”

Well, some reality.

If you don’t want to mask up.

If you don’t want to practice social distancing and keep having get togethers

COVID will continue to run rampant.
Then there is school funding: poor ventilation, old buildings, overcrowded classrooms ..and yes, a teacher shortage. Yes, you can scream how the teachers ought to “suck it up” and risk their lives for your kids. But you can’t make people teach. They are already walking away from the profession, encouraging others not to enter that profession, and teacher education programs at colleges are seeing fewer and fewer students.

Yet…parents balk at, yes, more taxes to pay for adequate salaries, classrooms, buildings and the like.

If you want the kids back in the classroom: mask up and practice social distancing.

I expect you to die

What does this have to do with current events?

Right now, COVID19 is getting worse. Wisconsin is setting up field hospitals.

Yet, Trump is going to have another rally there, though they will hand out masks and “instruct people to wear them.”
He has said something about “herd immunity.”
Hence the Bond clip.

Oh my guess is that Trump isn’t as ignorant as he appears to be; after all, he knew transmission was airborne a long time before it was announced.

But hey, many of his supporters think it is a hoax or “no big deal.”
And think about it: COVID19 is just lethal enough to kill but not so lethal that one can see the carnage right away. Assuming a mortality rate of .005 (per those infected); well, that is 5 out of every 1000…but one infected people can infect dozens who each, in turn, infect dozens, so *eventually* the disease spreads to kill many, though it doesn’t kill many in one place. Well, not always..not usually.

That “harmless social gathering” ends up killing many, but down the road..and away from the primary group.

So, this is difficult for many to take seriously; it isn’t as if your gathering will cause 40 percent to drop dead.

And many who get infected and don’t end up in the hospital (92 percent) end up with some nasty multi-week or multi-month side effects.

A dear walk

My bad; make it “deer” walk. Oh, it was very dark when I started and my legs started to feel just slightly heavy after mile 2..but by then I had picked it up and was moving at a sub 13 mpm clip.
I know: not so hot but better than I’ve done recently.
Highlights: on Heading (near the retirement place) I saw some deer: 4 of them. And I dropped off a card for Tracy.
I did challenge my piriformis and it was on the verge of aching when I finished; it never quite got there.

Less than 3 weeks

The workout: I changed it a bit and went outside.

How it went down: I did pull ups with warm up included; started with a set of 10 and then added 5’s, singles, etc, enough to get to 55.
Then dumbbell shoulder presses 10 x 44, 10 x 44, 10 x 40 overhead. Different motion.
Downstairs to: shoulder presses again: 3 sets of 10 x 88 seated (shown)
trap bar deadlifts (deficit): stood on the 10 kg plates:
10 x 134, 10 x 184, 10 x 204
bench press: 1 set of 10 x 132

2:30 plank then headstand.

Election Projection

Electoral Vote

We are seeing the convergence of models now; the differences appear to be more about priors. Note that Election Projection depicts a closer national race than Fivethirtyeight, which has about a 10 point spread and gives Biden an 86 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

So, how will it go? Well, the above maps are pretty good, I think, though given turnout and the like, maybe Biden poaches a few more states? Trump has a very narrow needle to thread.