How the Cook Political Report sees it.
Note the light colored states are “single digit leads”; Real Clear politics calls those states “toss ups” if they are for Biden but calls some of the light pink ones for Trump (Kansas, Missouri, South Carolina). Biden leads PA by 6, Michigan by 9, Minnesota and Nevada by 7, Wisconsin by 8.
This is Real Clear Politics “map with toss ups”. They give a lot of weight to priors in Republican states..perhaps based on the 2016 result.
This is Real Clear’s “no tossups” map; this might be one way to view the center of the 95 percent confidence interval. To get the upper ends, shade all of the toss ups one way or the other.
This is FiveThirtyEight’s snake diagram, which shows the states lined up as to how close they are and the line represents the 270 to win mark. They give Biden a 90 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
This is The Upshot (New York Times) “what if the polls were off as much as they were in 2012 and in 2016” chart.
Using this criteria; the real tossups would be Iowa, Texas and Maine 2’nd. Trump gets Ohio.
So using this:
Life of an old goat 