Day: October 15, 2020

I expect you to die

What does this have to do with current events?

Right now, COVID19 is getting worse. Wisconsin is setting up field hospitals.

Yet, Trump is going to have another rally there, though they will hand out masks and “instruct people to wear them.”
He has said something about “herd immunity.”
Hence the Bond clip.

Oh my guess is that Trump isn’t as ignorant as he appears to be; after all, he knew transmission was airborne a long time before it was announced.

But hey, many of his supporters think it is a hoax or “no big deal.”
And think about it: COVID19 is just lethal enough to kill but not so lethal that one can see the carnage right away. Assuming a mortality rate of .005 (per those infected); well, that is 5 out of every 1000…but one infected people can infect dozens who each, in turn, infect dozens, so *eventually* the disease spreads to kill many, though it doesn’t kill many in one place. Well, not always..not usually.

That “harmless social gathering” ends up killing many, but down the road..and away from the primary group.

So, this is difficult for many to take seriously; it isn’t as if your gathering will cause 40 percent to drop dead.

And many who get infected and don’t end up in the hospital (92 percent) end up with some nasty multi-week or multi-month side effects.

A dear walk

My bad; make it “deer” walk. Oh, it was very dark when I started and my legs started to feel just slightly heavy after mile 2..but by then I had picked it up and was moving at a sub 13 mpm clip.
I know: not so hot but better than I’ve done recently.
Highlights: on Heading (near the retirement place) I saw some deer: 4 of them. And I dropped off a card for Tracy.
I did challenge my piriformis and it was on the verge of aching when I finished; it never quite got there.

Less than 3 weeks

The workout: I changed it a bit and went outside.

How it went down: I did pull ups with warm up included; started with a set of 10 and then added 5’s, singles, etc, enough to get to 55.
Then dumbbell shoulder presses 10 x 44, 10 x 44, 10 x 40 overhead. Different motion.
Downstairs to: shoulder presses again: 3 sets of 10 x 88 seated (shown)
trap bar deadlifts (deficit): stood on the 10 kg plates:
10 x 134, 10 x 184, 10 x 204
bench press: 1 set of 10 x 132

2:30 plank then headstand.

Election Projection

Electoral Vote

We are seeing the convergence of models now; the differences appear to be more about priors. Note that Election Projection depicts a closer national race than Fivethirtyeight, which has about a 10 point spread and gives Biden an 86 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

So, how will it go? Well, the above maps are pretty good, I think, though given turnout and the like, maybe Biden poaches a few more states? Trump has a very narrow needle to thread.