It was 77 F, 74 percent humidity when I started and didn’t change that much. Course: Cornstalk 5.1 at the start, but then 3 lower loops: one “classic loop” with new bridge, one “full” loop (all the way to the top) with the old bridge, and one “lower loop” again with the old bridge. Then I crossed at the Main/Western light and walked it in:
Later: a run to walk, get some dinner and I got to see what happened to a large tree during yesterday’s storm:
I do see society fracturing. There is the “we are all in this together” camp and the MUH FREEDUMS camp. This weekend saw some rather disturbing things.
Now there were about 2500 people here. At 1 percent being infected, that is 25 people, who, in such a crowded environment, could easily pass it to 5 others which is 125 new cases, which probably means 1-2 deaths among this crowd and several times that many really ill. But that 125 goes out and infects, maybe 2-3 each and so on.
But the secondary, tertiary and longer term effects will take a while to show up in the spreadsheets. And without strict contact tracing, it will be difficult, if not impossible to trace it to a specific event.
That is, most who attended; well some will get sick, not too many die but they go out and infect others.
My guess: we are going to spike hard.
Now as far as assessing the general risk, this is a good article. And if an elderly person (say, 70 +) gets COVID, their risk is similar to a British bomber pilot flying a mission over Germany in WW2.
Commentary I speak for only myself. But more and more, I find myself getting MORE tribal; when given the opportunity to, say, get take out or go to a store, I tend to recoil from the thought of going to a place that conservatives frequent, even if it is a place I used to patronize. The reason: I think that I go to places where people wear masks and give each other social distance; I just won’t patronize a business if their customers are disrespectful about such things. And in the process, I am seeking out “blue” hangouts, so to speak.