Day: March 15, 2020

Ok, about this COVID-19: what is the strategy?

Our stated strategy is to take “social distancing” measures to as to “flatten the curve” (that is, to delay when the peak occurs and to make the peak lower than our health system capacity.

How it works.

Evidence from past outbreaks of other pandemics.

How to effect social distancing.

However, the UK is taking a somewhat different approach. While they are attempting to shield the most vulnerable, they are actually hoping enough people get it to establish “herd immunity” (60 percent getting it)

They’ll institute more stringent isolation measures in time (so they hope) to NOT overwhelm their health care system. But they want to avoid a “second peak” when the measures go away..which Japan might be experiencing right now:

March 12. We were supposed to be traveling to Britain next week to look around universities with Molly, but this is not the best time to travel. Vacation canceled. At least the hotels are all refundable.

March 13. On hold to Expedia for three hours to cancel flights — the line goes dead. Repeat two more times. I try calling All Nippon Airlines. On hold for one hour — success. Flight fully refunded.

March 15. The sun is shining and people are outside. Chinatown is as busy as I have seen it in two months. The chestnut seller and fortune tellers are back. It feels good. Until I consult the NHK website: Japan just set a record daily high in new infections, with 63 fresh cases.

Are people relaxing too soon?

The mathematics of the model:

And the standard “SIR” (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model.

And there goes the Riverplex

I decided to order some equipment in the even that my local gym shut down. And shut down it did; the two gyms I use are closed until March 30 and April 13, respectively.

Yeah and it is the right thing to do; in the Riverplex case: many of the users are elderly, due to its “Silver Sneaker” program (discounted rate for old people). Sure, this is a Peoria Park District shutdown, though I thought that I might have an extra week.

On the way: bench press spotter stands, free standing outdoor pull up bar, 25 lb. bumper plates (for squats and or power cleans). Already purchased: dumbbell handles with 40 lb. extra plates. Given my current collection of plates, I should be able to do goblet squats, front squats, dumbbell bench presses, overhead presses (outside, or seated inside), deadlifts, hex bar dead lifts and squats, curls, and I can walk to a playground to do some pull ups (until my bar gets in)

I chose this pull up bar set over a lighter, more flimsy set that was portable. I chose the dumbbell handles for the price and because they did not have 70 lb. fixed weight dumbbells (they went up to 55); I use the 70 for the bench press and goblet squats.

Outdoor pull up bar:

When it all gets here, I should be set to do almost ALL of my usual workout…exception: my bench is a flat bench; no incline nor decline.

And in what is to be my final Riverplex visit for a while (I honestly do NOT expect it to open by March 30…May or June sounds more realistic)..I got in a 7.2 mile shuffle. The run part (6.75 in 1:27) was slow but not that bad; I did a 10 minute “warm up” by looping around the Gateway..seeing the path closed off (due to Riverplex roof construction) and going on the run portion.

This featured the big hill from the lower part of Springdale up to prospect.