Ok, 1980 was the first presidential election I voted in. I knew that chances were slim in 1984, and again in 1988, but in those cases, the Republican was no Trump. And in 2000 and in 2004 and in 2016, I felt we had a good shot (and we won the popular vote in 2000 and 2016 so I wasn’t crazy).
But in this one…yes, Trump is unpopular but his approval ratings have been very, very stable. (Real Clear, fivethirtyeight
Yes, it is high enough, at this point in time, to win reelection; it is similar to where Obama’s was at this point in time leading up to the 2012 election (see the fivethirtyeight link)
And as far as the Democrats:
I like Klobuchar, but she is so low in the polls, she might not make the stage in the next debate. Booker: nope; I like him, though I wonder if this is an emotional “captain of the football team” reaction from me (yes, he played at Stanford). Buttigieg: nope. Smart guy, but he needs time in Congress or as governor; South Bend is a relatively small town.
The realistic candidates: Biden and Warren.
Biden: perhaps he isn’t past his expiration date, but he is past his “best if used by” date; he has lost a step and gaffes too much.
Warren: brilliant woman, but a well crafted plan means zip if you can’t get elected or get said plan past Congress. Shaking your fist and saying “you need to fight” doesn’t mean much. I think that she comes across as scolding and professorial …like Obama, but minus the charm. Ironically, she does have middle class roots (grew up in Oklahoma) and really is “self made”; no one paved the way for her. With her, I don’t worry about the product; it is sound. It is the packaging that I am worried about.
The others: nope.
Yes, I’ll vote for a rubber chicken if it ran against Trump. And yes, we are likely to win the popular vote, again. But the EC: ugh..it is a tough needle to thread for us, especially since Iowa and Ohio have exited the “swing state” status and we have no guarantees of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. It is a tough map for us.
Workout notes: weights and a 2 mile walk:
pull ups: 5 sets of 10, one of 5, rotator cuff, plank, headstand, goblet squats: 6 x 25, 45, 50, 60, 4 x 70. hex deads: 6 x 175, 4 x 225 (tough). Weight: 186? Not sure what is going on; not enough sleep? Irritation with work? Recovery from my marathon/half marathon? Who knows.